Updated Apr 2, 2025, 7:31 a.m. UTCPublished Apr 2, 2025, 11:15 a.m. UTC

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

President Trump's so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.

CommerceSecretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks. Here's how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.

The cryptocurrency's resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)'s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.

Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!

By Shaurya Malwa

• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99

• Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

• Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

• The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.
• That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.

• Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears (CoinDesk): The bitcoin-yen trading pair slipped after hitting key trendline resistance as Goldman Sachs named the Japanese currency a top hedge against growing U.S. tariff and recession risks.
• U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan as Beijing Conducts Live Fire Drills in East China Sea (CNBC): On day two of its drills, China’s military simulated precision strikes on port and energy targets under an exercise called “Strait Thunder-2025 A,” according to a senior officer.
• Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall From All-Time High (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.
• SEC, Gemini Request Two-Month Pause in Lawsuit as 'Potential Resolution' in the Works (CoinDesk): The two asked a New York court to pause the lawsuit over Gemini’s Earn product as they explore a possible resolution after prolonged legal proceedings.
• U.S. Officials Object to European Push to Buy Weapons Locally (Reuters): In a closed-door meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Baltic officials that Washington would view U.S. defense firms’ exclusion from European contracts unfavorably.