The Champions League quarter-finals are shaping up to be a thrilling spectacle, with significant upsets and dominant performances shifting the odds dramatically. According to Opta Analyst, Real Madrid, the current Champions League titleholders, face an uphill battle to reach the semi-finals after a stunning 3-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal. The Gunners' sensational win at the Emirates, fueled by two exceptional free-kicks from Declan Rice and a clever finish from Mikel Merino, has given them a commanding lead heading into the second leg at the Bernabeu. Opta now gives Arsenal a 96% chance of qualifying for the semi-finals, a stage they haven't reached since 2009 when Manchester United eliminated them. On the other hand, Real Madrid's chances of progressing are a mere 4%.

In another quarter-final clash, Inter Milan has boosted their chances of reaching the last four after a 2-1 victory over Bayern Munich in the first leg. They now hold an 82.4% probability of advancing.

Meanwhile, Barcelona is gearing up to host Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of their quarter-final tie at Montjuic. Barcelona, led by Hansi Flick, has been in scintillating form, showcasing eye-catching attacking football that justifies their position as favorites. However, they will be keen to exorcise the demons of their 2010 semi-final defeat to Inter Milan. Dortmund, on the other hand, aims to compensate for years of Bayern Munich's dominance by reaching back-to-back finals.

Barcelona's impressive form includes an unbeaten streak of 22 games, with 18 wins. However, they were held to a 1-1 draw by Real Betis over the weekend. Despite this, Barcelona remains in contention for a quadruple, having already secured the Spanish Super Cup and advanced to the Copa del Rey final after a 5-4 aggregate win over Atletico Madrid. The possibility of an El Clasico final in the Copa del Rey adds further excitement to the season, especially with both teams also battling for the La Liga title. Real Madrid's recent loss to Valencia has added another twist to the title race.

Barcelona has a strong record against Dortmund, remaining undefeated in their five previous encounters. Manager Flick boasts a perfect 100% record against Dortmund, with six wins from six matches during his time with Bayern. However, Barcelona will be wary of underestimating Dortmund, who have been a force in Europe despite their struggles domestically. Dortmund's only knockout-stage defeat in their last eight matches was against Real Madrid in last year's final at Wembley. Their strong form in Europe might be their only route back into the Champions League next season, as their Bundesliga campaign has been underwhelming. Despite recent wins against Mainz and Freiburg, their hopes of a top-four finish remain slim.

Raphinha is expected to return to Barcelona's starting lineup, joining Lamine Yamal and former Dortmund player Robert Lewandowski in attack. Dortmund will welcome back Yan Couto and Nico Schlotterbeck from suspension. However, Niklas Sule has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Despite this, manager Kovac has a wealth of options available, and Serhou Guirassy is likely to feature in the starting XI.