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Even in dark times, there are dreamers. "United States of Europe NOW” was the motto of recent demonstrations in 20 Italian cities, with marchers waving EU flags. "We aren’t vassals,” called out a participant in Rome. In contrast to the "predators” Trump and Putin, Europe is a great continent, the demonstrator chanted. "We developed democracy.”

That same day, French President Emmanuel Macron flew in a Falcon jet across the English Channel to a crisis summit in London. Above the clouds, he showed a journalist flying with him a map on his phone from the French daily Le Figaro on which U.S. troops stationed in Europe were shown. "The Americans make up 30 percent of NATO,” Macron said. "It will take us 10 years to extricate ourselves from them.”

A strong, resilient Europe that is prepared to defend its liberal, cosmopolitan democracy without the protective power of America: Just a few months ago, this vision would have been dismissed as a pipe dream. These days, though, it is becoming the blueprint for Europe’s future, albeit a desperate one.

Macron and the other European heads of state and government are running out of time. For years, they neglected to prepare for disaster. And now, it has arrived. During a meeting in the Oval Office, U.S. President Donald Trump accused his visitor, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of risking World War III. The minerals deal the two had been planning to sign fell apart and a short time later, Trump suspended U.S. military aid for the Ukrainians. The Europeans now badly need to find a response to the parallel attacks coming from Moscow and Washington. The severity of the current situation is impossible to discount: It is time to save what can be saved in Ukraine and remake the European continent into a fortress.

"The risk of a war on the European continent has never been so great,” says French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. "Pax Americana is finished. We are living in a different world,” said Sir Richard Shirreff, the former deputy supreme allied commander in Europe. Friedrich Merz, who won German elections in February, wants to achieve "step-by-step independence from the U.S.”

Ukraine must be turned into a "steel porcupine."

Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president

It marks the beginning of a breathtaking race to catch up, both militarily and financially. Even more dramatic than the search for money, tanks and rockets, however, will be the political challenges. Will European heads of state and government be able to find a strategy to survive in this new world? Can Europe grow with this crisis, as it has done with past dilemmas? Or will the Trump-Putin shock accelerate the continent’s downfall?

Europe has already found a new leadership duo, at least for now: In fall, Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer drove through Paris in an open military vehicle to mark their victory in World War I. Now, they want to lead the continent out of its self-inflicted immaturity.

The two didn’t just welcome the most important EU countries to their summit, but also NATO partners like Norway, Canada and Turkey. The latter is a particularly focus: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a large battle-hardened army and he is on good terms with both Putin and Zelenskyy. The pro-Russian mavericks from Hungary and Slovakia were not extended an invitation.

Internally, the group is sometimes referred to as Europe+. Some dream of fashioning it into a kind of alternative NATO, outfitted with its own mutual assistance clause. Other observers, such as the French military expert Pierre Servant, are in favor of a European defense council, which could include the most willing and the militarily strongest partners along with EU representatives. The council could coordinate military operations, the training of Ukrainian troops and the expansion of Europe’s arms industry. Germany, says Servant, could join at a later date – a nod to the fact that Berlin is currently in the process of negotiating its next coalition government following February elections. Right now, he says, speed is of the essence – and those who are ready now must move forward.

Just how serious the Europeans are will become clear from the amount of money devoted to the project. Defense budgets are rapidly growing at the moment in almost every country on the continent. In Germany, the conservatives behind Friedrich Merz and his likely coalition partners from the Social Democrats reached an historic agreement last Tuesday to reform the country’s balanced budget rules and to aim at spending between 130 and 150 billion euros per year on defense. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hopes to support the development with a plan known as ReArm Europe. The plan seeks to mobilize a total of 800 billion euros for defense with the help of joint debt and flexible deficit rules.

An additional 200 to 300 billion euros could be added to the pot if the EU were to release frozen Russian assets for military aid in Ukraine, as is being demanded by Poland, the Baltic states and Finland. Economically, in other words, the challenge is one that can likely be met, despite all the debates about balanced budget laws and deficit rules. The subscription costs for Europe+ will be expensive, but doable.

"We must no longer see ourselves as a colony of the Americans."

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali

The EU on its own has 500 million citizens and its member states number among the wealthiest countries in the world, notes Nathalie Tocci from the Italian think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali. "We must no longer see ourselves as a colony of the Americans. Then, we can succeed.”

From a military perspective, the situation is far less bright, particularly on the front in Ukraine. Should Trump decline to resume U.S. weapons deliveries, Kyiv will likely only be able to continue fighting at its accustomed intensity for just a couple more months. By summer, if not earlier, experts warn, Ukraine will begin running out of ammunition. Even worse is the fact that the U.S. ceased sharing surveillance data. The Europeans are not currently able to make up for the intelligence shortfall.

The greatest fears harbored by the French and the British, however, have to do with the time following a possible ceasefire. They are afraid that Trump will make a deal with Putin at any price. Europe, says Starmer, cannot afford a reprise of the "weak agreement” produced in Minsk.

That deal was signed following the Russian annexation of the Crimea in 2014. Despite the ceasefire, Russian snipers continued firing at soldiers and civilians for so long that the agreement ultimately wasn’t even worth the paper it was printed on. And Moscow suffered no consequences. This time, say Starmer and Macron, Ukraine needs real security guarantees. What those might look like, however, remains a matter of intense debate.

There is, at least, agreement among the Europeans on one point: Once the weapons fall silent, Kyiv needs to be rearmed. Ukraine must be turned into a "steel porcupine,” said Ursula von der Leyen. Macron and Starmer, though, doubt whether that would be enough to deter Putin. They want to secure the ceasefire with their own troops and are seeking support for a "coalition of the willing.”

The primary focus is on a "reassurance force” made up of perhaps 30,000 soldiers. They would be stationed far behind the front, with the primary responsibility being that of protecting critical infrastructure. Warships could protect Ukrainian ports and trade routes on the Black Sea. The ceasefire line, stretching for more than a thousand kilometers, would primarily have to be monitored from the air. On Tuesday of this week, military chiefs from 30 European and NATO countries that are willing to contribute security guarantees are in Paris for talks at the invitation of Macron. "It isn’t Washington and Moscow that will decide about the future of Europe,” the French president said last week in a televised address to the nation.

The Netherlands, Australia and Canada joined countries in Scandinavia and the Baltics in sending early signals that they would be willing to join a "coalition of the willing.” Poland has excluded the contribution of troops, saying it must focus on defending its eastern flank. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said she isn’t entirely supportive of the British-French proposal. "We are moving a bit too fast,” she said.

Berlin, too, remains skeptical. Both Merz and outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz have said the debate is premature. Instead, other scenarios are under consideration: Why not move the training of Ukrainian soldiers, which has thus far taken place in bases across Europe, to Ukraine itself? Doing so, say supporters of the concept, would demonstrate solidarity, but wouldn’t involve sending European troops to the front.

The German concerns have not been well-received in London and Paris. "Many Europeans remain paralyzed, like a bunny in the headlights,” says one high-ranking government official in France.

Following the blowup in the White House and after several telephone conversations with Trump, both Macron and Starmer have reached the conclusion that they must present their own plan for Ukraine as quickly as possible. One that the Ukrainian president can live with as well.

At the summit in London, both tried to convince Zelenskyy to sign the minerals deal with Trump despite the souring relationship with Washington. Berlin, for its part, focused its attentions on Zelenskyy’s advisers. Last Tuesday, Zelenskyy wrote to Trump to say that Ukraine is grateful for American support and is prepared to sign. The Ukrainian president also mentioned elements of Macron’s idea for a step-by-step ceasefire, according to which fighting in the air and on water could initially be suspended, followed by an armistice on the ground one month later. During his speech to Congress last week, Trump said he "appreciates” the letter from Zelenskyy.

Still, the question remains whether the Macron-Starmer initiative can be successful. Despite threatening sanctions against Russia to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire deal, Trump has been making concession after concession to Putin, and it remains unclear whether the Russian autocrat will accept the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine, or even a ceasefire.

As such, it seems that the greatest hurdle to the British-French plan is probably Trump himself. Starmer, especially, is insisting on a U.S. "backstop,” which envisions Washington intervening should European troops come under attack. With airstrikes, for example. Otherwise, he says, sending troops would be impossible.

Trump, though, doesn’t seem interested in making such a promise. The presence of American workers in the country should be sufficient, he said during a meeting with Starmer. As long as they are mining Ukrainian minerals, Putin certainly wouldn’t dare launch an attack, the U.S. president said. Vice President Vance added his two cents as well: "That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years,” he said.

That comment made clear that the new administration in Washington can at least be relied on for one thing: A dismissive, insulting tone with regards to the Europeans. For Macron, who has been demanding "strategic autonomy” for the continent for years, it is yet another reason to finally take action. It is an historic moment and the French president hopes to take advantage of it – also for a new beginning in Franco-German relations. Paris has high hopes for Friedrich Merz, whose positions are far less ambiguous than those of his predecessor, as one minister in the French government says.

Still, without American approval, any "coalition of the willing” could quickly collapse. And the price for such a failure, the Italian political scientist Tocci believes, wouldn’t just be paid by the Ukrainians, but potentially also by Moldavia, Romania and the Baltic countries. "Once Putin understands that NATO is dead, he may go after Lithuania next,” she says. It would then be up to the West to demonstrate just how prepared it is to defend itself.

In Rome, former Italian Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi recalls the founding fathers of Europe – Konrad Adenauer, Alcide De Gasperi and Robert Schuman. "Their countries fought each other in two world wars. Still, they had the courage to begin the process of European integration,” says Milanesi, now a professor of law at the Roman university LUISS Guido Carli.

The ground floor of the French Foreign Ministry includes the historic Clock Room where it all began. Beneath the golden chandeliers, French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman announced on May 9, 1950, the imminent founding of the European Coal and Steel Community. A small plaque on the marble fireplace at the head of the room commemorates the event, passed by many ministry officials each day. Back then, this building saw the founding of the Europe that everyone today takes for granted. Now, a new chapter has become urgently necessary – with or without support from Donald Trump.