Bitcoin's price trajectory has been a focal point of intense analysis and speculation, with various experts weighing in on its potential future movements. Recent reports suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing Bitcoin's value, ranging from historical cycles to macroeconomic trends and investor behavior.

One perspective, offered by crypto analyst TradingShot, leans on historical Bitcoin market behavior to predict future peaks and troughs. TradingShot's analysis, posted on TradingView, posits that Bitcoin's bull cycles have consistently lasted approximately 1,064 days (152 weeks), with peaks occurring roughly three years after previous bottoms. Conversely, bear cycles have typically spanned around one year, from December to December or November to November.

Applying this cyclical pattern, TradingShot suggests that the current bull cycle, which began on November 7, 2022, could reach its apex around October 6, 2025. This peak, according to the analyst, might surpass $125,000, mirroring the explosive rallies seen in 2017 and 2021. However, this bullish forecast comes with a significant caveat: TradingShot advises investors to "sell everything" by October 2025, anticipating an extended bear market to follow. The analyst recommends starting to accumulate again around October 12, 2026, based on the historical one-year bearish phase observed across three full market cycles.

On-chain data offers another lens through which to assess Bitcoin's market dynamics. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, reports that Bitcoin's Realized Cap recently hit a new all-time high, indicating a substantial influx of capital into the cryptocurrency. The Realized Cap calculates Bitcoin's total value by valuing each coin at the price it was last transacted on the network, thus reflecting the aggregate cost basis of investors.

While the Realized Cap has been trending upward, Glassnode notes a significant slowdown in its growth rate. At its peak in December, the metric's growth rate was around 13% per month, but it has since declined to just 0.9% per month. This deceleration, according to Glassnode, could signify softening investor appetite and a "risk-off sentiment." Periods of rapid Realized Cap growth have historically coincided with Bitcoin bull rallies, while slowdowns have led to bearish consolidation.

Some analysts draw parallels between Bitcoin's price action and that of gold, suggesting that Bitcoin may follow gold's recent momentum. Cryptollica, a crypto trading account, highlighted similarities between the price movements of gold and Bitcoin, noting that both formed macro-bottoms around early 2023 and experienced rejections at range tops in early 2024. While gold broke out in subsequent months, Bitcoin lagged slightly, breaking out around November 2024.

Cryptollica suggests that Bitcoin is now breaking out of a consolidatory wedge pattern, with a potential mid-term target as high as $155,000. This outlook is supported by expectations of an increasing global M2 money supply in 2025, which typically favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience amidst global tariff-induced uncertainty, performing well alongside gold during these periods.

Technical analysis provides additional insights into Bitcoin's potential movements. Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin is slowly moving higher above the $83,500 zone and must clear the $85,200 resistance to continue its upward trajectory. Support was found at $83,200, initiating a recovery wave. The price is trading above $84,500 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, with a break above a connecting bearish trend line at $84,650.

However, failure to overcome the $85,200 resistance could trigger another decline, with immediate support near $84,500 and major support at $83,200. Technical indicators show the Hourly MACD gaining pace in the bullish zone, and the Hourly RSI above the 50 level.

The behavior of short-term holders (STHs) also provides valuable clues about Bitcoin's current cycle. CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe notes that the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether STHs are selling at a profit or loss, is currently below 1.0, indicating that many STHs are selling at a loss—a signal often associated with capitulation phases.

Additionally, the STH Realized Price, currently around $92,000, represents the average cost basis for coins held by short-term investors. When Bitcoin trades below this level, it can indicate undervaluation relative to recent buyer activity. CryptoMe suggests that these periods of loss-taking by STHs have historically marked temporary bottoms, presenting accumulation opportunities. Given broader macroeconomic pressures, the analyst recommends a hedged strategy, accumulating in spot markets while maintaining short positions in derivatives to manage downside risk.

Despite market volatility and uncertainty, Bitcoin has demonstrated relative stability, partly attributed to resilient spot Bitcoin ETF holders and continued aggressive buying by Michael Saylor's firm, MicroStrategy. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant inflows, helping to stabilize Bitcoin's price. He points out that Bitcoin ETF investors have "much stronger hands than most people think," suggesting increased stability and lower volatility in the long term.

MicroStrategy's latest Bitcoin purchase on April 14 involved acquiring 3,459 BTC for $285.5 million at an average price of $82,618 per coin. The firm now holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin, further contributing to market stability.