Bayern vs Ulm – Preview & Prediction: Bayern will play at home against Ulm in the Bundesliga Finals Game 3.

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Bayern has performed significantly better at home this season, and perhaps the best proof of that is the fact that during the semifinal series against Heidelberg, they suffered only their second home loss of the entire season. They successfully advanced from that series with a 3-1 result, but showed signs of weakness along the way. Prior to that, they eliminated Syntainics, while the final series is currently tied at 1-1 after Bayern won at home and lost on the road with a 79-64 defeat where they had virtually no chance.

These ups and downs are a perfect reflection of their entire season, in which they haven’t won a single trophy so far, making the Bundesliga title a potential saving grace. It’s important to note that Carsen Edwards is not participating in the Bundesliga playoffs, and from what we’ve seen so far, a few games were decided by the pure individual quality of the Shabazz Napier – Andreas Obst duo, particularly with their three-point shooting. In the second game, Napier went 0/4 from beyond the arc, while Obst shot 2/7, with Vladimir Lucic leading the team with 17 points and six rebounds. Beyond offensive fluidity, they need to show much more intensity on defense, as the main issue hasn’t been scoring, but rather the inability to slow down opponents and limit their scoring.

Just like Bayern, Ulm is also a team that plays phenomenally at home, where they posted a 15-1 record during the regular season, which secured them the second seed. They weren’t successful in the EuroCup, failing to make it past the first round, but this run to the finals is still a major achievement considering they completely revamped their roster and philosophy after winning the Bundesliga two seasons ago. Yet, the system is working so well that the changes aren’t even noticeable. In the second game, they played brilliantly and won by a 15-point margin to tie the series 1-1.

They also have reasons to regret the outcome of the first game, as they were in a tight contest until the very end but faltered in the closing moments. What’s important to highlight is that the players are bursting with confidence, and the win that tied the series has given them even more inspiration to attempt an upset. Karim Jallow had a poor showing in the first game but bounced back in the second, leading the team with 23 points, while Justinian Jessup shined in the first game of the finals—although it wasn’t enough—and added 10 points in the second. One area they definitely need to improve is free throws, as they shot just 14/23 in the previous game despite the win. However, they did shoot 40% from three-point range (11/28), which could be a key factor in this third game if they manage to pull off a surprise.

Bayern and Ulm have faced each other four times this season—twice in the regular season and twice in the Bundesliga finals. Each team has won two games, all on their home court, and the finals series is currently tied at 1-1.

Bayern cannot count on Carsen Edwards and Oscar Da Silva in this playoff. Ulm is without Isaiah Roby and Tommy Klepeisz due to injuries.

Throughout the entire playoffs, Bayern has shown signs of vulnerability, and the truth is that they managed to pull through many of those games purely thanks to individual brilliance. It’s also been evident both during the regular season and the playoffs that Bayern performs significantly better at home than on the road. Ulm, on the other hand, surely gained a major boost in confidence after winning Game 2, and even in the first matchup, they had their chances but failed to capitalize. We expect the uncertainty to continue, and if Bayern does come out on top, it’s highly unlikely to be by a double-digit margin.

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