Demand for Apple’s iPhone in mainland China is expected to encounter headwinds in the second half of 2025, after sales of the device received a strong boost in recent months on the back of promotions in the world’s biggest smartphone market.

In the second half, “iPhone sales in China will stumble amid weak consumer spending and an ageing iPhone 16 cycle, while tepid iPhone 17 upgrades won’t spark demand”, Counterpoint Research senior analyst Ivan Lam said on Thursday.

He added that efforts by domestic rivals, especially Huawei Technologies, to “aggressively” target the market’s high-end smartphone segment would also affect iPhone sales on the mainland.

That assessment reflects the challenges that the iPhone continues to face in the domestic market even after Apple recently joined the national subsidy programme.

Select models of the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch that cost below 6,000 yuan (US$837) are eligible for a subsidy of up to 500 yuan, while as much as 2,000 yuan in discounts cover certain MacBook and Mac computer models, according to Apple’s statement last month.

In the second quarter, Apple saw an 8 per cent year-on-year increase in iPhone 16 sales in China, thanks to “well-timed and well-received” promotions introduced a week ahead of the midyear 618 shopping festival, according to a Counterpoint research note on Thursday.

The US consumer electronics giant in May slashed iPhone prices by as much as one-third on major Chinese e-commerce platforms, which had also made certain models eligible for the government’s consumption subsidy programme.