Abuja — Trade is set to expand at an average of 5.1 per cent a year through 2026, before quickening to 5.4 per cent by 2028

Africa's trade projected to hit $1.5 trillion in 2025 as growth momentum builds Africa's intra- and extra-regional trade is on course to reach US$1.5 trillion in 2025, according to fresh forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and Afreximbank, as the continent leverages deeper integration and a steadier commodity backdrop to accelerate economic diversification.

Trade is set to expand at an average of 5.1 per cent a year through 2026, before quickening to 5.4 per cent by 2028, comfortably outstripping the global forecast of 3.3 per cent. By the end of the decade, total trade volumes may touch US$1.7 trillion, while the ratio of trade to GDP is expected to climb to 52.7 per cent, up from 45.6 per cent in 2024.

"Despite global economic fragility, Africa's real GDP is projected to grow by 4.0 per cent in 2025 and to 4.2 per cent by 2027," says Dr Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist at Afreximbank.

He adds that 41 per cent of African economies will expand by at least 5 per cent next year, almost double the worldwide average, underscoring the region's rising weight in global growth dynamics.

Intra-African trade is slated to grow at 6.6 per cent annually between 2025 and 2028, injecting an extra US$261.4 billion into the continent's GDP by 2028, and lifting its share of output from 9.7 per cent to 16.5 per cent. Central Africa is expected to record the fastest gains--at 12 per cent a year--while Western Africa will continue to account for the largest tranche of internal trade flows.

These advances owe much to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has gradually eased tariffs, harmonised customs procedures and encouraged investment in regional value chains. The IMF also highlights improvements in transport and logistics networks and the rapid uptake of fintech and telecoms infrastructure as key enablers of the upswing.

Regionally, Eastern Africa is projected to deliver the strongest GDP growth--rising from 4.4 per cent in 2024 to 5.7 per cent in 2025 and surpassing 6 per cent by 2027. Northern Africa's trade volumes are tipped to hit US$560 billion next year, with Western and Southern Africa managing US$302 billion and US$279 billion respectively; Eastern Africa's external trade is forecast to reach US$219 billion by 2028.

Yet headwinds persist. Dr Kale cautions that "Africa's economic resilience is still under pressure from inflationary strains, geopolitical frictions, supply-chain disruptions and climate-related risks."

A slowdown in China--where growth is expected to decelerate from 4.8 per cent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent by 2027--could dent demand for African commodities. Domestic instability in parts of Central and West Africa also threatens trade corridors and investor confidence.

The continent's reliance on raw materials remains a fragile foundation. "Despite strong trade growth, Africa's export basket is still dominated by low-value commodities," Dr Kale observes.

He argues that "accelerating industrialisation and moving up the value chain are essential to shielding economies from volatile price swings."

Nevertheless, some tailwinds are gathering. Easing monetary conditions in advanced economies could improve Africa's access to affordable capital, reducing debt-servicing burdens and unlocking investment in critical sectors such as infrastructure and digital services.

To sustain the upward trajectory, policymakers will need to press ahead with structural reforms, improve fiscal management and bolster human-capital development. "Investment in education, health and digital skills will be vital," says Dr Kale.

Professor Benedict Oramah, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, said: "This year's report provides a compelling roadmap for Africa to reposition itself in a volatile global economy. From strengthening trade finance systems to accelerating the AfCFTA, the message is clear: Africa must turn global fragmentation into an opportunity for industrialisation, digital progress, and greater control over its financial systems."