JP Morgan analysts suggest Bitcoin possesses greater upside potential than gold, fueled by crypto-specific catalysts and increasing institutional adoption. Recent acquisitions by Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini underscore a maturing derivatives market, which has the potential to attract a broader range of traditional investors. Bitcoin is currently trading near $104,000, approximately 5% below its all-time high, driven by a resurgence in risk appetite and continued ETF inflows that are surpassing those of gold.

Analysts at JP Morgan noted that Bitcoin has been supported by several factors, including growing corporate treasury allocations and proposed and enacted legislation that permits states to invest in the asset. They also highlighted acquisitions by Coinbase and Kraken as indicators of a maturing futures and derivatives market. According to analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the zero-sum dynamic between gold and Bitcoin is expected to persist for the remainder of the year, with a bias towards crypto-specific catalysts providing more upside for Bitcoin compared to gold in the second half of the year.

JP Morgan’s report follows a recent crypto market rally that propelled Bitcoin above $104,500, reaching its highest level since late January and nearing its all-time high. Investors have been returning to risk assets, with Bitcoin leading this trend. While some advocates view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, JP Morgan has observed that it often behaves as a risk-on investment, correlating with equities rather than decoupling from broader market trends.

JP Morgan also pointed to recent deals as signs of a maturing crypto derivatives market. These include Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit, Kraken’s purchase of the U.S. futures platform NinjaTrader, and Gemini securing a license to offer derivatives in Europe. The analysts believe these developments suggest the crypto derivatives universe is maturing, and by operating under U.S. or EU regulations, it could foster confidence and greater participation from traditional institutional investors.

Michael Petch, CEO of digital precious metals platform Argo, suggests that gold prices could rise further if there are new developments in tariff negotiations with China after the current 90-day pause concludes. Both assets have steadily increased in value over the past year due to investor concerns about inflation and broader macro uncertainties, although Bitcoin has outperformed gold during this period. Bitcoin ETFs surpassed their gold counterparts in net inflows last December, according to K33 Research, and this trend has continued as of May. Gold is currently trading at $3,230, down from its April all-time high of $3,500, while Bitcoin is trading at $103,800, slightly below its January 20 record of nearly $109,000.

In a separate analysis, crypto strategist Cryptoinsightuk offers a timeline for when XRP's price could surge again, aligning its next major move with key phases in Bitcoin’s dominance cycle and a potential rotation into the altcoin market. According to Cryptoinsightuk, the altcoin market, including XRP, is approaching another explosive rally. Bitcoin dominance is nearing the 70% mark, which has historically signaled the start of significant altcoin seasons. This pattern has been observed across multiple cycles, with XRP demonstrating the ability to outperform Bitcoin during these periods. The analyst referenced December 2024, when XRP surged from $0.50 to briefly above $3.30, outpacing Bitcoin in relative gains.

Cryptoinsightuk expects this trend to extend to most altcoins with attention-based utility, especially if Bitcoin dominance faces rejection around the 70% level. Once Bitcoin surpasses the $104,000 to $117,000 price range, capital rotation into altcoins is likely to begin. This liquidity shift could create the necessary conditions for XRP to make its next leap and reach new all-time highs. The analyst also noted that Ethereum is poised to move to a new all-time high, potentially reaching $4,200 this cycle.

The analyst anticipates Bitcoin will initially move through liquidity pools, leading to a significant price increase. If Bitcoin follows the same timeline as between the peak in March and the breakout in September, it will take 239 days, projecting a massive breakout sometime in July. Bitcoin could reach a $160,000 to $180,000 price target. If this occurs, altcoins are expected to rally when Bitcoin breaks through the $104,000 to $117,000 range, with XRP potentially leading this move. The rotation from Bitcoin into the altcoin market will primarily involve traders who invested before institutional money began flowing into Bitcoin, particularly those who bought before the last few weeks or earlier in the cycle. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.50.