The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a stark warning in its latest global climate predictions, indicating that global temperatures are anticipated to remain significantly higher over the next five years, from 2025 to 2029. This development, as highlighted in the WMO's report, is poised to escalate climate-related risks and exert considerable impacts on societies, economies, and the pursuit of sustainable development worldwide. The report serves as a critical climate product, alongside the flagship State of the Global Climate reports, aimed at providing decision-makers and policymakers with timely and accurate climate information.

The WMO's projections are concerning: there is an 80 per cent probability that at least one year within the 2025-2029 period will surpass 2024 to become the warmest year on record. Furthermore, the report indicates an 86 per cent likelihood that at least one of these years will see temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average). There is also a 70 per cent chance that the average warming over the entire five-year span (2025-2029) will be more than 1.5°C above these pre-industrial levels. However, the report notes that long-term warming, when averaged over decades, is still projected to remain below the 1.5°C threshold for the time being.

The report further specifies that Arctic warming is predicted to continue at a rate faster than the global average. Significant regional variations in precipitation patterns are also expected. The year 2025 is identified as a crucial juncture for global climate action, emphasizing that every fraction of a degree of warming has profound consequences for sustainable development, national economies, and human lives. The WMO report underscores that the current level of warming is already responsible for an increase in harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, the melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, as well as ocean heating and rising sea levels.

WMO Deputy Secretary-General, Ko Barrett, commented on the findings, stating, “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.” She further emphasized the necessity of continued climate monitoring and prediction to equip decision-makers with science-based tools and information crucial for adaptation strategies. The report also clarifies that the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels mentioned in the Paris Agreement pertain to long-term warming trends, typically assessed over a 20-year period, and that temporary exceedances of these thresholds are expected to become more frequent as the overall global temperature continues to rise.