Back to the SALT mines we go. The Senate version of President Donald Trump’s so-called "big, beautiful bill" drops the $40,000 cap on state and local tax deductions down to the $10,000 ceiling that Trump imposed in his first term eight years ago. If it goes through, that could lead Long Island’s two House Republicans, who worked hard on forging a deal in the House, to potentially withhold support from the measure — in a chamber with a thin GOP majority.

At least one Suffolk County Republican suggested to The Point that even if Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino lose, the good fight will be appreciated by the voters. But that’s not guaranteed.

Democrats tried to restore SALT and failed when they controlled both chambers. Trump, who cut the SALT deduction from unlimited to $10,000 in his first term, flip-flopped against that policy when campaigning here in 2024.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will try to hold any failure by LaLota and Garbarino against them in the 2026 campaign. At least one potential challenger, Citizens Union chairman and ex-CNN anchor John Avlon, has been working the Democratic terrain again. In Avlon's first CD1 bid, LaLota got 55% of the vote to Avlon's 44%. This time, LaLota has more to defend as a member of the majority party in a midterm, when the vote tends to bend against the White House.

Over the weekend in Riverhead, at one of a slew of Long Island "No Kings" rallies, Avlon vowed, as posted on Instagram, "We’re not here today as candidates; we’re not even here as Democrats. We’re here as Americans ... We’re going to be positive and patriotic." LaLota said in a statement over the weekend that he appreciated that protesters in Riverhead "kept things peaceful ... in contrast to the violence and lawlessness unfolding in other parts of the country." He cited polls to claim the popularity of Trump policies (despite other polls now showing widespread dissatisfaction with the proposed budget bill).

Democratic sources said with other candidates privately considering a CD1 run, it’s too early to tell whether Avlon may face a primary for another shot at LaLota’s seat. He’s been visible at events but not yet officially running or part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee priority list. But the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC’s press secretary, Katarina Flicker, issued a statement when The Point asked about CD1, in which she reliably blasted LaLota over proposed Medicaid cuts and SALT in particular.

Like margaritas, Long Island congressional races aren’t the same without you-know-what.

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