As the NCAA Tournament first round inches closer, it’s officially gut-check time for bracket visionaries. The consensus since Champ Week concluded on Sunday, is to pick chalk. The favorites are here for a reason. But that only feels like the right strategy up until the clock strikes noon ET on Thursday. This is what March Madness is all about.

Among the No. 1 seeds in the 68-team field, Duke basketball is Goliath. A strong roster, coupled with having college basketball’s top superstar in Cooper Flagg, has made them special.

Their opening weekend competition? Not so much.

But March offers a chance to think outside the box, go against the grain and reveal some upsets. As J.P. says in the movie “Angels In The Outfield,” it could happen.

Even to the distinguished Blue Devils.

Mar 8, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Truth be told, they can. Witnessing head coach Jon Scheyer’s squad put the critics to rest in the ACC tournament after Flagg exited the quarterfinal matchup against Georgia Tech was a huge confidence booster. In the 74-71 semifinal victory against North Carolina, Duke scored efficiently as a collective group – with five of its eight available players scoring in double-figures. 

The 73-62 conference title win over Louisville was close to the same, as Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor led the way in both Flagg absences. Simply put, the Blue Devils don’t view themselves as a one-man wrecking crew like much of the public does.

The leader of the East region, Duke will get the winner of American and Mount St. Mary’s in the No. 16 play-in game.

While Wednesday will provide a better evaluation of Duke’s Round 1 opponent, it’s quite clear that a rare 16-1 upset won’t be a popular pick, especially if Duke is fully healthy.

However, Flagg has missed his last two games with the Blue Devils, and his status is still being monitored ahead of Friday. Flagg suffered a left ankle sprain against GT, per John Leuzzi of USA Today.

“From my perspective, it’s full steam ahead. I want to get Coop back as quickly as I can, and he wants to do the same. Obviously, tomorrow is important. Today was an off day, we got back late (from the ACC tournament),” Scheyer said Sunday. “We are hoping he can start to progress starting tomorrow with doing some on-court work and then build up to where he can practice later in the week.

“Our goal is for Friday. No question about that.”

Duke would most likely prefer holding Flagg out for the American/MSM game, given the team’s success without him against two tournament contenders.

But the round-of-32 gets a little more precarious. In that scenario, Duke gets the winner of the 8-9 game between Mississippi State and Baylor – both hungry, gritty and both with something to prove coming out of the formidable SEC and Big 12.

Scheyer and the Duke coaching staff have a crucial decision to make before Friday. Flagg’s absence is going to be felt eventually, and this is the time of year where predictions don’t hold a ton of mass.

The stakes are high. The room for error is minimal. Anyone, including the national champion favorite, can fall flat on a given day.

Duke basketball is no exception.