The day after Hamburg's parliamentary elections on Sunday, March 2, cautious optimism was in the air at the Social Democratic Party (SPD) headquarters in Berlin. "The result made us smile," said party co-chair Saskia Esken.

The SPD won 33.5% of the vote in Hamburg, more than double its February 23rd federal election result of only 16.4%. That was the SPD's worst federal election result since 1887 ­— back when it was still called the Socialist Workers' Party of Germany. The Bundestag election reflects a depressing, decades-long downward trend for the party.

The SPD's 25.7% share in Germany's last federal election in 2021, now seems to have been an anomaly. Back then, opinion polls had  put the party at 15% for months. Its surprising comeback was due to crucial mistakes by its main rival, the center-right Christian Democratic Party (CDU). Those within SPD ranks later described it like this: "We thought we had won — but it was only that the others had lost."

How could Germany's oldest, 160-year-old political party, find itself in this slump? As one of the Germany's two major parties, it has produced influential German chancellors, playing a decisive role in shaping the Ostpolitik and other milestones in postwar Germany.

The February federal election reveal the demographics of support for the SPD. It garnered the most votes (20%) from those over the age of 60, but only 12% from younger people between the ages of 18 and 34.

The party lost around 1.7 million of its voters to the conservative union parties — the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), as well as 720,000 to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). One million former SPD voters switched to the Left Party and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party. The election was evidently a bloodletting in many directions.

German voters clearly feel their worries about jobs and immigration are not being taken seriously. In an analysis by the opinion research institute infratest-dimap, only 14% of Germans believe the SPD can competently steer asylum and refugee policy, while 52% say it is neglecting workers' interests.

The infratest-dimap survey shows that 55% of respondents say they feel the SPD cares more about the unemployed than those who work hard and earn little money.

"We have given the impression that those who don't work — or only occasionally go to work — are more important to us than those who work. And that is fatal for a social democratic party," said long-time SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel on public television broadcaster ARD following the federal election.

The election result may have been deeply shocking for the SPD — yet there have been no resignations. Party Co-chair Lars Klingbeil quickly extended his position in power  — and now also heads the party's parliamentary group in the Bundestag.

Since the election, the SPD's mantra is to stick together through the next stage, which will likely see it remain in government as a junior partner to the conservative union (CDU/CSU). 

However, quite a few disappointed SPD members are questioning the value of a new coalition with the conservatives. It would be the SPD's fourth government alliance with the CDU/CSU since 2005, and the party has emerged weakened each time.

SPD Co-leader Klingbeil is promising to strengthen the party's identity in the coming years as the "people's party of the center-left." He says there will be a "renewal of program, organization and staff."

However, the rise of the far right and volatile global politics mean the SPD has no time to withdraw and regroup: "German politics has the task of strengthening Europe during this historic phase. And for that, a social democracy capable of action is needed," said Klingbeil. "We must succeed, we must take responsibility for this country."

The SPD has survived exhausting disputes between its left and conservative wings for decades. Many party leaders have fallen, or resigned, exasperated. It has only been under the leadership of co-leaders Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, that the party has managed to close ranks.

Ever since the federal election, the Social Democrats' internal debates have intensified. The left wing is warning against making too many concessions during coalition negotiations. Such a warning should be taken seriously — after all, SPD members themselves eventually vote on the coalition agreement.

There are key differences of opinion between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. First and foremost, on how to find the billions of funds needed for Germany's army, and for renovating the ailing infrastructure. For the SPD, it is vital that these investments do not come at the expense of social spending.

The CDU/CSU will most likely be under pressure. It needs the SPD to join a coalition government, since it has ruled out an alliance with the far-right AfD.

This means the SPD delegation can put forward proposals — and drive up the political price for a government coalition with the party. After all, if they fail to please their party members – who will ultimately vote on the coalition agreement — Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil too, will soon be history.

This article was originally written in German.