Officials say the probability of an Israeli strike has “gone up significantly” in recent months. A deal perceived as weak by Israel could prompt a preemptive strike, potentially sabotaging Trump’s efforts and plunging the Middle East into deeper conflict.
The Trump administration’s diplomatic approach to Iran has entered a critical phase. A mid-March letter from Trump to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei set a 60-day deadline for negotiations. That deadline has now passed, and tensions are mounting as both sides remain far apart on key terms of uranium enrichment.Special envoy Steve Witkoff, leading the US delegation, stated the US “cannot allow even 1 percent of an enrichment capability.” Iran, however, insists enrichment is a sovereign right under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Talks continue, but sources confirm there is no finalized US proposal bearing Trump’s approval.A senior Western diplomat confirmed that Trump recently said military action would be considered if talks fail. Trump now faces a dilemma: risk alienating Israel or allow negotiations that Netanyahu views as overly lenient toward Tehran.
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US intelligence has observed Israeli movements that could indicate a looming strike from shifting air munitions to completing relevant air exercises. Yet some analysts believe these maneuvers may be calculated signals aimed at pressuring Tehran and Washington simultaneously.
According to a US source, Israel cannot destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities without American assistance, including bunker-busting bombs and midair refueling capabilities. But one Israeli source told CNN that Israel would act alone if Trump’s deal does not meet its standards.
The possibility that Israel could act independently to derail a “bad deal” remains under serious consideration in Washington. US officials have increased intelligence gathering and monitoring in anticipation.
Iran, weakened by sanctions and an October strike on missile sites, is more vulnerable than it has been in years. Some in the current administration believe this creates a fleeting window of opportunity for a diplomatic breakthrough or, conversely, for military action.
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An intelligence assessment from February noted Israel could use long-range missiles or military aircraft to exploit gaps in Iran’s air defense, though such attacks would offer only temporary setbacks to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
“The Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official. Netanyahu is under domestic and international pressure to prevent a deal Israel deems ineffective, without jeopardizing US-Israel ties.
Trump’s challenge is balancing diplomacy with hardline demands while managing the actions of an ally prepared to chart its own course.
