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The Traore triangle - Daily Trust

Published 11 hours ago5 minute read

Like the rest of the world, Africa is undergoing a profound metamorphosis both politically and socially. Nowhere in Africa is this more pronounced than West Africa with the bastion of Francafrique leading the charge. The cankerworm of insecurity having eaten so deep, threatening the participation of West Africa in the global social renaissance, military nationalists seem to have taken it upon themselves to reinvent the security architecture of their countries with a focus on economic independence from the West.

Word from the grapevine is that the whole of the African continent is conceded to France as its own sphere of influence in the so-called New World Order. This is at least factually true in the case of France’s former colonies in West Africa and parts of Central Africa, or Francafrique.

The so-called New World Order conspiracy theory holds that the West seeks to keep the rest of the world in perpetual bondage and subservience to its geo-strategic interests. The push for democratisation and entrenchment of Western soft power has translated to many instances of direct kinetic intervention to a lesser extent, and to a large extent the geopolitical strangulation through malign activities against a dissenting nation, for the most part in the Global South.

This has naturally bred great resentment against these Western forces that, to those at the receiving end, now ascribe malicious intents to them. Perhaps, nowhere is this more pronounced than in Francafrique. A wave of military coups and counter-coups has swept these regions in recent years and the common denominator is the repudiation of France.

The rise of Captain Ibrahim Traore in Burkina Faso, through a military coup three years ago, has changed so many narratives about what Africans are capable of. Together with military leaders from other Sahel countries, to wit, Mali, Guinea and Niger, he has completely decoupled from France and hitched his wagon instead with the rising Russian power. Against popular belief in western circles, even Traore’s failure to immediately nip Burkina Faso’s security challenges in the bud has not ignited a pro-democracy clamour that will consume his junta from within or without.

A 2024 survey in 39 countries by Afrobarometer showed a drop in support for democracy, although it remained the most popular form of government.

Ghanaian security analyst Prof Kwesi Aning, who previously worked at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, said the popularity of the military leader reflected a political shift taking place on the continent, especially in West Africa.

“Democracy has failed to give hope to the youth. It has not delivered jobs or better education and health,” Prof Aning said in an online interview. According to the professor, Traoré is offering an alternative, and re-capturing the spirit of two historic epochs -the post-independence era, when there were leaders like Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah and Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia and a later era with Sankara and Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings, whose coups were also very popular at the time.

The charismatic 37-year-old Traoré has skilfully built the persona of a pan-Africanist leader determined to free his nation from what he regards as the clutches of Western imperialism and neo-colonialism. Like the legend of the Bermuda Triangle, he has sucked and destroyed all hope for France to retain its African empire and rode out all attempts to eliminate him.

His message has resonated across Africa and beyond, with his admirers seeing him as following in the footsteps of African heroes like Burkina Faso’s very own Thomas Sankara – another revolutionary who is sometimes referred to as “Africa’s Che Guevara”.

“Traoré’s impact is huge. I have even heard politicians and authors in countries like Kenya [in East Africa] say: ‘This is it. He is the man’,” Beverly Ochieng, a Kenyan researcher at global consultancy firm, Control Risks, wrote.

“His messages reflect the age we are living in, when many Africans are questioning the relationship with the West, and why there is still so much poverty in such a resource-rich continent,” she said.

His efforts to take back his country for his countrymen included setting up a state-owned mining company, requiring foreign firms to give it a 15% stake in their local operations and to transfer skills to Burkinabé people.

Capt. Traoré literally stole the show at the recent inauguration of Ghana’s President John Mahama this January when he arrived wearing battle fatigues with a pistol in his holster. There were 21 heads of state there, but when Traore walked in, the place lit up. Even some president’s bodyguards were running after him.

Traore offers a sharply contrasting image to some of Africa’s other leaders, who struggled to walk but clung to power by rigging elections.

Traore is stylish and confident, with a very open face and a small smile. He is also a powerful orator, and presents himself as a man of the people.

In a sign that his junta has made some progress on the economic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have given a generally upbeat assessment. In a statement in early April, the IMF opined that despite challenging humanitarian and security environment, the economy is expected to remain “robust” in 2025, and the regime had made “commendable progress” in raising domestic revenue, containing the public wage bill, and increasing spending on education, health and social protection.

As for the World Bank, it said that inflation had surged from 0.7% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024, but the extreme poverty rate, which refers to people living on less than 2 dollars day, had fallen by almost two percentage points to 24.9 per cent because of “robust growth” in the agriculture and services sectors.

At the latest count, Capt Traore has survived 17 coup attempts so far, some led by his own comrades. He cuts the image of an invincible rock that absorbs or swallows any and all weapons fashioned against him. Not only that, but many African leaders are now jittery over the influence the successes of Traore might have on their own armed forces or even electorate.

Beyond just swallowing weapons fashioned against him, the legend of Traore might also end up swallowing African leaders who have no vision beyond their own pockets and those of their families and cronies.

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