The Pivotal Role of the Bundesrat in Germany
Germany faces a pivotal moment as its parliament considers a constitutional amendment to relax the country's debt brake. This move could pave the way for a substantial spending package targeting armaments, infrastructure, and climate protection. The agreement has been forged by a coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), alongside the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, who are currently engaged in negotiations to form a new government.
The amendment has already cleared the Bundestag on Tuesday, March 18, securing the necessary two-thirds majority. Now, it awaits a crucial vote in the Bundesrat, the second chamber of the German parliament, scheduled for this Friday. Securing passage in the Bundesrat requires the support of at least two-thirds of its members, a feat that is far from guaranteed due to reservations expressed by several regional parties.
The Bundesrat represents the 16 state governments of Germany, each sending representatives, typically leading ministers from the state's cabinet. Situated in Berlin, the Bundesrat holds the power to approve or reject bills affecting the states, including the proposed amendment, which would allow states to ease their own debt brakes. The distribution of the Bundesrat's 69 seats is not strictly proportional to population. For instance, North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state with 18 million residents, has six votes, the same as Lower Saxony, which has only 8 million. Similarly, the smallest states, Bremen and Saarland (each with under a million inhabitants), have three votes, as does Hamburg, with 1.9 million.
Each state's representation is divided among parties based on their strength within the coalition government. In Bavaria, for example, the CSU holds four of the six seats, with the remaining two held by their coalition partners, the Free Voters (FW). A potential hurdle lies in the requirement that each state government must vote as a single bloc, irrespective of party affiliation. Should the FW representatives in Bavaria vote differently from their CSU counterparts, all six of Bavaria's votes would be deemed invalid. With the amendment needing at least 46 votes to pass, and CDU, SPD, and Green-led governments only controlling 41 votes, Bavaria's stance is crucial.
Last week, this scenario seemed likely when FW leader and Bavarian Economy Minister Hubert Aiwanger voiced strong opposition, citing concerns about the country's stability. However, the FW has since withdrawn its objections, potentially influenced by the risk of jeopardizing their participation in the Bavarian government, and have agreed to support the amendment. While Aiwanger's initial concern centered on excessive government spending, other Bundesrat members have raised different issues. Kristina Vogt, Bremen's Economy Minister from the Left Party, has called for a greater allocation of the infrastructure package to the states, threatening to vote against the package if this demand is not met. A similar dynamic is present in Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania, where the Left Party, part of the governing coalition, has expressed unease about increased military spending. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), also critical of higher military expenditures, holds government positions in two other eastern German states. Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), a staunch advocate for fiscal discipline, is part of the government in Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt.
According to Christoph Gusy, a constitutional law professor at Bielefeld University, disagreements between the Bundestag and Bundesrat are not uncommon. Bills can be sent back to the Bundestag for renegotiation. However, a split vote within a state delegation, invalidating all of its votes, is rare. Gusy notes this has occurred only twice before, once seemingly due to a misunderstanding. In 2002, Brandenburg's government split its votes on an immigration bill, leading to a Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated the state's votes.
If the Bundesrat rejects the debt brake amendment, Gusy anticipates a
