George Mason currently sits atop the conference standings, but five other teams are within two games of the top seed. Last season, the conference earned two bids into the NCAA tournament with Dayton and Duquesne, both of which advanced to the second round.
This year, after the opening few weeks of the season, it looked likely that the A-10 would earn three bids into The Big Dance. Especially with the hot starts from Dayton and St. Bonaventure, the future looked very bright for the A-10. Since then, however, the Flyers and the Bonnies have seen a dip in their success.
In late January, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projected that the conference would only earn one bid, the automatic qualifier. However, there is room for improvement, as the A-10 has three teams ranked inside of the top 75 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings, which offers multiple opportunities for the frontrunners to pick up quad 1 wins.
So who has the best chance of being a conference representative in March?
In Lunardi’s most recent bracket prediction, VCU basketball made the jump from “next four out,” to the automatic qualifier from the conference. Proving that the Rams seem to be peaking at the right time. After dropping their opening game in conference play at St. Bonaventure, the Rams rattled off six straight wins. But a loss on the road to Saint Louis now puts the Rams in a tough spot, as they fall to second place in the A-10 standings.
The Rams are ranked 12th in the country in scoring defense, at 62.4 points per game. But they also thrive on the offensive end, averaging 77.6 points, which is second in the conference. Mix that with forcing the most turnovers in the A-10, and VCU basketball has the recipe for success to make their second NCAA Tournament in three seasons. But they will have to take advantage of late season matchups with Dayton and George Mason, to stay in the at-large conversation.
George Mason basketball has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2011. But At 6-1 in A-10 play, they are a dark horse to make a return to The Big Dance. The Patriots were picked to finish sixth in the conference in the preseason poll, but a five-game win streak has brought hope of a tournament return to Fairfax. The win streak includes important wins on the road over Dayton and St. Bonaventure.
Similar to VCU, the Patriots make their money on the defensive end. George Mason gives up 62.6 points per game, which ranks them 13th in the country. They also are one of three teams in the conference to have a quad 1 win on their resume, which came in the win over Dayton. With a calmer finish to the conference schedule than most, the Patriots have every opportunity to ride momentum into Capital One Arena with a chance to return to the NCAA Tournament.
In the first two months of the season, a quick search in the dictionary for the term “quality loss,” would feature an image of the Flyers. Even with losses to North Carolina and Iowa State in Maui, Dayton basketball was ranked 23rd in the NET rankings on December 16. But after losing four of their next five games, that ranking plummeted to as low as 74th in the country.
However, with two quad 1 wins, over UConn and Marquette, the Flyers had a great chance to boost their current “next four out” resume. But promptly after moving back into the bubble conversation, a 75-53 loss to St. Bonaventure might have derailed the Flyers’ hopes. Dayton has the best shooting percentage in the conference from the floor and from behind the arc. So with their four losses in A-10 play coming by an average of more than 10 points, consistency is key for the Flyers down the stretch. After a dominant loss at St. Bonaventure on Tuesday, the two meetings with VCU become increasingly more important for the Flyers to make a run.
NET Ranking: 93
Key Remaining Games: at Saint Joseph’s
After a blazing start that saw St. Bonaventure have a 14-1 record on January 4, the Bonnies had hopes of returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021. However, after winning their first two conference games, St. Bonaventure lost five of their last six. While all hope is not lost, especially after dominating the Flyers at home, the Bonnies have three more opportunities for quad 2 wins.
The Bonnies play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. Combine that with a top-100 defense in the country, and the opportunity is there to make a run. But with a NET ranking of 93, an at-large bid may seem out of reach. In order to get back into the conversation for an at-large bid, the Bonnies will need to nearly run the table. But anything can happen when the automatic qualifier is on the line in the Nation’s Capital.
Record: 13-8 (6-2)
NET Ranking: 114
Key Remaining Games: vs Dayton, vs GMU, at Dayton
With a NET ranking outside of the top 100, Saint Louis basketball will need to rely on a successful trip to the conference tournament to steal a bid. However, at 6-2 in conference play, the Billikens have a chance to earn a top seed going into Capital One Arena. It is also worth noting that five of Saint Louis’s final 10 games come against the top six teams in the standings. This means that they will have every opportunity to prove to the conference that they belong atop the A-10.
The Billikens are second in the conference in field goal percentage, but they have lacked consistency on the offensive end. With an at-large bid unlikely, Saint Louis will need to use the final stretch to build momentum and consistency to grab the automatic bid from the A-10.
Last season, the A-10 earned two bids into the NCAA Tournament. Dayton earned an at-large bid, with a NET ranking inside the top 25, and Duquesne stole a bid after winning the conference tournament as the sixth seed.
The difference this season? VCU is the closest to earning an at-large bid, being ranked 45th in the NET. Dayton is currently listed in Lunardi’s “next four out” category, but after the Flyers’ loss to the Bonnies, George Mason seems to be a more likely candidate. Therefore if trends continue in the conference, only one squad from the A-10 will make the trip to The Big Dance.
However, if a team at the top of the A-10 standings dominates the final weeks of the regular season, it is possible that the conference could earn an at-large bid. But with only a few resume boosting opportunities for the top teams, it will take near perfect play to send more than one A-10 team to the NCAA Tournament.
