Texas Tech comes in as one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 as they take on Oklahoma State. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Texas Tech-Oklahoma State prediction and pick.
Texas Tech is the No. 12 team in the country. It's been a very impressive season so far for the Red Raiders and they are coming off a double-overtime win over Arizona State last time out. Texas Tech ended Houston's long winning streak a few weeks back by one point in overtime. That win adds to their impressive list of wins which includes: Baylor, Syracuse, BYU, Kansas State, Arizona, and Cincinnati. The Red Raiders defeated Oklahoma State by 10 points at home earlier in the season.
OSU is having a season to forget. At 12-12 overall, the Cowboys are even worse in conference play. They are just 4-9 and only two teams have worse conference records, ASU and Colorado. Colorado is winless in their first season in the Big 12 as they are awaiting their first-ever conference win since coming over from the Pac 12. Colorado was in the NCAA Tournament just a season ago. As for Oklahoma State, they haven't been to the Big Dance since 2021. OSU's biggest win this season came against Kansas State at home in early January.
Texas Tech: -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -480
Oklahoma State: +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +360
Over: 148.5 (-115)
Under: 148.5 (-105)
Time: 3:00 ET/noon PT
TV: ESPN+
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Texas Tech contains one of the top offenses in the country led by three special players. At 82.0 points per game, they are 25th in the nation in points per contest and they are 35th in field goal percentage at 48.2%. A big reason why is because of JT Toppin, Darrion Williams, and Chance McMillian. Toppin leads the team averaging 16.5 points per game on 56.3% shooting (38th). The New Mexico transfer adds 9.0 rebounds per game which is 32nd in the nation and 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals. In the double-overtime win over ASU, Toppin scored 41 points and grabbed 15 rebounds and two blocks in an absolutely dominant performance. However, it's not just him that propels this team. They managed to beat Houston without him as he only played four minutes before suffering an injury.
Williams and McMillian are right behind Toppin in scoring and have been ahead of him for the majority of the season. Toppins' last performance sky-rocketed his average. Williams is at 15.3 per game and McMillian is at 15.2. McMillian is shooting at a high rate of 52.8% from the floor which is 73rd in the country. Williams is a great two-way player who adds 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. As long as Texas Tech's trio is balling out, then they will cruise to a win against the Cowboys.
This team will struggle against Texas Tech's incredible trio. The Cowboys must find a way to keep up offensively if they want a chance to cover this spread at home or potentially upset the Red Raiders. The Cowboys don't have a bad offense but they have a terrible defense. They allow 74.5 points per game which is in the bottom hundred of the country. The Cowboys also shoot just 42% from the floor so they must have one of their best games of the season, if not the best to be in this game. The only bright spot for the Cowboys is knowing that it took double overtime for the Red Raiders to take down ASU last time out. Furthermore, they only lost by 10 points in the first meeting on the road.
Oklahoma State is 9-2 at home as their only losses came against Arizona and Houston. However, their home wins have come against Green Bay, St. Thomas, Southern Illinois, Tarleton State, Oral Roberts, Kansas State, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona State.
The one thing OSU does well is generating steals. They average 8.4 per game which is 48th in the country. Arturo Dean is an elite ball defender and averages 2.1 steals. Khalil Bradley is also great averaging 1.1 per game. The team also has five players who add at least 0.7 steals per contest. Generating steals and forcing Texas Tech into bad shots could help OSU cover this spread.
Oklahoma State plays much better at home. They seem to score more than 78 points at home which if done again tomorrow afternoon, should be enough to cover the spread. I expect Texas Tech to win, but the Cowboys cover the spread late in front of their home crowd. Texas Tech is 13-11 ATS and OSU is 10-14 but 4-1 in the last five home games.
