The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China edged down 0.2 per cent in January 2025 to 149.9 (2016=100), following a 0.1 per cent decline in December 2024. Over the six months from July 2024 to January 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.8 per cent, marking a steeper decline than the 1.4 per cent drop recorded in the previous six-month period from January to July 2024.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China fell by 1.6 per cent in January to 150.5, reversing its 0.7 per cent gain in December. Over the past six months, the CEI increased by 0.8 per cent, a significant slowdown compared to the 1.8 per cent growth seen in the preceding period.

“The China LEI inched down in January, continuing a 3-year long downtrend. The decline was broad-based with nearly all components weighing on the LEI. In particular, the depressed consumer confidence remained a major drag. The only positive contribution came from medium- and long-term loans, which also supported the Index in recent months,” Ian Hu, economic research associate, at The Conference Board said in a release.

Additionally, the negative semi- and annual growth rates of the LEI are still intense and point to headwinds to economic growth ahead. With US-China trade under high tension, the Chinese economy will face further pressures in 2025 that may not be yet fully reflected in the Index. Altogether, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.5 per cent in 2025 after 5.0 per cent in 2024, Ian added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)