Sun Pharma is anticipated to report high single-digit growth in its bottom line for the fourth quarter, driven by strong performance in its domestic business. An average estimate from five brokerages indicates a 9% year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth. However, net profit is expected to lag, with an estimated 6% YoY growth.

Analysts are factoring in US sales of $500 million for Q4FY25, primarily attributed to increased sales of gRevlimid. Gross margins are projected to decrease by 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 79.7%, due to reduced milestone income. The specialty business is expected to show 20% YoY growth, reaching $325 million for Q4, driven by steady execution.

Kotak Equities expects Sun Pharma's overall sales to grow by 8% YoY. They anticipate a 17% QoQ sales decline in the global specialty business to $308 million, citing inventory buildout and seasonality benefits in Q3FY25. They project a 9% YoY growth in both India and RoW/EMs for Q4FY25. Gross margins are expected to decrease by 30 bps QoQ to 79.7% due to lower milestone income, with R&D spending at 7.7% of sales (+150 bps QoQ). EBITDA is projected to grow by 12% YoY to Rs34.7 billion, but EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 390 bps QoQ to 26.8% due to increased R&D spending.

Motilal Oswal anticipates a 13% YoY growth in DF sales for the quarter. They highlight the importance of clarity on the launch of Deuruxolitinib in the US market and its potential launch in other global markets. They also emphasize factors that could drive consistent growth in branded generics in emerging/ROW markets and any progress on products in the Amplitude basket.

YES Securities foresees a revenue decline due to one-off milestone income in ROW markets in Q3, coupled with a sequential fall in domestic business. They expect US sales to increase by 2% QoQ, driven by better Taro numbers based on historical patterns. Higher R&D spending compared to Q3 is expected to dampen margins QoQ.

Nuvama projects a 9% YoY revenue growth, with domestic business continuing to outperform at 10%. They estimate US revenue at $503 million and global specialty business at $335 million, noting improved dermatology product sales. R&D spend is expected to be 6.4% of sales. Nuvama estimates EBITDA/PAT to grow by 22%/4% YoY, with EBITDA margins at 28.4% for Q4FY25.