Steve Matthews' Preakness Stakes 2025 horse-by-horse analysis - Newsday
Set solid fractions when a wire-to-wire winner in the slop at Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard. With a strong chance of rain at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday, this Bob Baffert-trained runner could play out as the speed of the speed on a track that tends to be kind to front-runners. Jockey Flavien Prat will need to ride aggressively to outsprint No. 8 Clever Again to give this colt his best chance and hold off Journalism in the stretch.
The most likely winner on paper, but there could be cracks in his armor. No. 1: He’s rattled off three fast-figures efforts in a row and could be ripe to bounce (regress). No. 2: He will offer odds that are below his actual chances (underlay). No. 3: He’s never raced with just two weeks’ rest. Your move.
Goes for 89-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who won last year’s Preakness with Seize the Grey. It’s not likely to happen again. This colt was done in by sizzling early fractions in the Derby and staggered home 16th, beaten by 38 lengths. Appears to be more of the same on Saturday.
A potential feel-good story as he’s ridden by the daughter (Saffie Osborne) of his trainer (Jamie Osborne). For storybooks only. As he’s an unknown that’s been racing at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. Bottom line: These types rarely do well in their stateside debuts.
He holds the home-field advantage as he has won four of his last five at neighboring Laurel. Razor-sharp but a cut below.
Really had no excuse when tracking a fast pace and then unable to pass the front-runner when third in the Blue Grass. Knock No. 2: He’s guaranteed to attract more money than he’s worth with Todd Pletcher-Irad Ortiz calling the shots. No thanks.
Sleepwalked his way to a well-beaten seventh in the Derby but that was not unexpected as he was exiting a career-best effort in the Arkansas Derby. He’s a 50-50 proposition he’ll make a forward move on Saturday but his odds may not warrant a wager. You make the call.
He’s fleet-footed and logged five tight workouts since winning a lesser-stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 30. Speed always demands the highest respect, especially at Pimlico. The biggest question is whether he can secure the early lead from Goal Oriented. Demand greater than 7-1 if you’re willing to make that bet.
9. GOSGER
He was a good-looking, hard-charging winner in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last out, tallying an improved late-pace figure along the way. And he followed that effort with three swift drills. Rapidly-improving 3-year-old with a big-time chance at a big-time price.