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Siegel's Scoop: Lakers-Warriors outcome shifts Western Conference playoff picture

Published 2 weeks ago14 minute read

Have the NBA playoffs already started? It sure seems that way, as the level of competitiveness we have seen between Western Conference foes with just 10 days left in the regular season has been incredible. What we witnessed on Thursday night between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors was pure cinema and yet another historic battle between LeBron James and Stephen Curry.

The only difference between this matchup and the previous three times these teams met, all of which were won by the Lakers, is that the outcome of this game completely shifts the balance of power in the NBA playoff picture.

Whether you're a LeBron lover or a Steph stan, this game in Los Angeles should have left you applauding the greatness that was on display until the final buzzer sounded.

There is so much to point to and talk about from this game, but once again, it's James and Curry who remain the best spectacle in the NBA in the final years of their respective Hall of Fame careers.

It was the Warriors who came away with a much-needed 123-116 win over the Lakers in a game that alters every potential matchup in the Western Conference playoff picture as the final week of the regular season approaches.

This was Golden State's fourth straight win, and they have improved to 20-5 since Jimmy Butler made his first appearance on the court. More importantly, the Warriors are now 19-2 with both Butler and Curry on the floor, as well as 13-0 when Curry, Butler, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody are starting.

The midseason woes that the Warriors were haunted by leading up to the trade deadline are no more. Butler has completely shifted the dynamic of this franchise, once again instilling the belief that they can win a championship.

Although many still doubt Golden State's ability to do so, many comparisons can be made between this team and that of the 2021-22 Warriors, who ultimately went on an improbable playoff run and defeated the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals.

Steph is still Steph. Draymond is still Draymond. Butler has replaced Klay Thompson as the team's second in command next to Curry, and he brings a lot more to the table as an all-around two-way threat who acts as a calming presence late in games.

There are then Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Podziemski, Moody, and so many other contributors who make the Warriors arguably the deepest team in the West playoff picture.

Speaking of, this win for the Warriors and loss by the Lakers creates an even tighter race for everyone other than the Oklahoma City Thunder.

As if a win on Tuesday over the Memphis Grizzlies wasn't important enough for Golden State to temporarily move into the 5-seed in the standings, this victory in Los Angeles puts the Dubs closer to a top-four spot in the West. After this win, the Warriors are just one game behind the Lakers for the 4-seed and 1.5 games behind the Denver Nuggets for the 3-seed.

Coincidentally, the Nuggets will be in Chase Center on Friday night in yet another massive Western Conference clash that will shake up the standings. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr already made it clear on Thursday night that all of the team's veterans will be available for this game against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on Friday given, the importance of a potential win.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, this loss for the Lakers is their fifth in their last eight games. Los Angeles is holding onto a slim lead for the 4-seed, yet they hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Warriors, Grizzlies, and LA Clippers. If the Lakers can remain above the Warriors in the standings, they would win the Pacific Division and own tiebreakers over the Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves.

A matchup in the second-to-last game this season against the Houston Rockets will decide if the Lakers can claim that head-to-head tiebreaker as well.

While this loss stings, the Lakers are still in a better position than the standings may say, even if they end up in a tie with some of these teams. Los Angeles' main goal is to secure home-court advantage for a first-round playoff series, and they will have an opportunity to get back on track against an injury-riddled New Orleans Pelicans team on Friday night.

The NBA playoff picture is changing every night, especially in the Western Conference. Every win matters a bit more right now, and so many scenarios could play out. While the Nuggets and Lakers own the 3-seed and 4-seed right now, it's possible for them to be dethroned. It is also possible for the Grizzlies or Warriors to fall into the play-in tournament region of the standings.

There is much to unfold in the Western Conference playoff picture, starting with the red-hot Warriors facing yet another Game 7-like scenario with Denver in town on Friday.


Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III (10) reacts with guard Stephen Curry (30) during the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum.
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Every game matters a little bit more at this juncture for the Warriors. Golden State's main focus has been avoiding the play-in tournament, and they have put themselves in a position to achieve loftier goals with about a week remaining in the regular season.

Back-to-back wins over the Grizzlies and Lakers have put the Warriors in a position to possibly move up higher than the 5-seed in the Western Conference playoff picture. Then again, a loss on Friday night to the Nuggets could once again shift things in the West. Only this time, said shift won't be in the Dubs' favor since Memphis, Minnesota, and LA are still on their heels.

This run from the Warriors with new energy and Butler helping lead the way has changed their perspective around the league. Teams once again fear Golden State, and they will be a nightmare for anyone in the postseason.

“Any team that has to play them in the first round is going to be shaking their heads,” one Eastern Conference executive told ClutchPoints after Thursday's game between the Lakers and Warriors. “Steph is hard enough to deal with, but now you have a team in total control of their confidence that truly believes they can win another title. Would anyone be shocked if they actually did at this point?”

At the end of the day, a win is all that matters to the Warriors.

While they lost the first two games of their six-game road trip, Golden State ended things on a high note with wins over the Grizzlies and Lakers. As far as the playoff picture goes, Curry recognizes the opportunity ahead in the standings.

“We got some wins. It was a rough start (with) the first two. Close out the rest of these games. I think we got better each game,” Curry stated in his postgame comments on Thursday night. “(We) took advantage of the opportunities to give ourselves a good chance down the stretch to, guarantee a playoff series. We got work to do, but we're in good shape.”

When the Warriors were in the play-in region of the standings, the narrative surrounding them was about whether the championship window had completely closed. Now, the championship narrative surrounding this team is very much alive and well, especially given their depth.

Curry has talked at length throughout the season about what a fifth ring would mean to him, and this stretch of monumental success that the Warriors have found has opened Steph's eyes up to the possibility that another championship is a real possibility at this time.

“Step one is get in a playoff series. Step two is to try and win four games, then figure it out from there,” Curry continued. “Where we were two months ago as the 11-seed and really struggling to find an identity; that's where that kind of comment (winning a fifth ring) comes out.

The way that we're playing right now is reflective of what Jimmy's brought to us, but to the question of BP, Moses, JK, Looney, Gui, Buddy — all those guys are understanding what winning basketball is and how it doesn't matter what it looks like. Just compete (and) have confidence when you're out there on the floor, and I think we've understood with a shorter rotation and more consistent rotation that we have the pieces (that) fit.

“A lot of work to do, but I like where we're at right now.”

Entering Friday night's game in San Francisco against the Nuggets, the Warriors hold the 5-seed in the West with six games remaining on their schedule. Denver is 1.5 games ahead of Golden State, and the Lakers are just one game ahead. As important as it is to look ahead at who the Warriors could potentially jump, Curry and Co. still need to pay attention to who is in the rearview mirror.

Both Memphis and Minnesota won against Eastern Conference foes on Thursday, allowing them to remain within a half-game of Golden State. The Clippers are looming as well since they are just one game behind the Warriors in the 8-seed at this moment.

Two wins over the Grizzlies and Lakers have created a slight buffer for the Warriors and opened the door for the opportunity to potentially contend for home-court advantage in the Western Conference playoff picture. These next two games against Denver and Houston will ultimately determine their playoff position.

If the Warriors can stay hot and get past the Nuggets on Friday, then they will move within a half-game of passing Denver in the standings. However, the Nuggets own the season tiebreaker, regardless of the outcome in San Francisco. The Lakers should also defeat the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, so a win would momentarily keep the Warriors in the 5-seed.

There isn't much light on the opposite side of things. A loss to the Nuggets for the third time this season would push Golden State into a tie with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves in the standings. The Clippers could also pull even in this scenario if they were to defeat the Dallas Mavericks.

That is why a win against the Nuggets on Friday night is imperative, as a loss would erase all of the Dubs' hard work against Memphis and Los Angeles.

Of course, what happens between the Warriors and Nuggets will directly impact the Lakers in the NBA playoff picture and their chances of maintaining home-court advantage in a first-round series.

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Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) during the second half at Crypto.com Arena.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

This is a tough loss to the Warriors. At one point, it looked like the Lakers were going to figure things out with LeBron scoring at a high rate and Austin Reaves knocking down some ridiculous three-point shots late in the fourth quarter, but this team was a mess defensively once again.

From failing to grab defensive rebounds to allowing easy interior looks, Los Angeles' lack of defensive awareness down the stretch of this game cost them a much-needed win. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that Reaves and Doncic were exposed on defense by the Warriors. This is something other teams will definitely take note of with the playoffs right around the corner.

Although James and Reaves were present in this battle, Luka had one of his worst performances in a Lakers uniform, scoring just 19 points on 6-of-17 shooting. He failed to make a three-point shot on six attempts, snapping a 114-game streak of making at least one perimeter shot.

You have to go back to April 2023 to find the last game where Doncic didn't make a three-point shot. This was the fifth-longest streak in NBA history.

Doncic had mentioned coming into this game against the Warriors that he's been dealing with an elbow issue, and this injury appeared to really limit him in Los Angeles' biggest game of the year. Whether or not this injury is limiting Luka is unknown at this time, but the superstar made it clear after this loss that he is the one who needs to step up next to James and Reaves if the Lakers are to be real threats in the West.

“That performance from me was unacceptable. When I play like that, that makes [it] harder [for the team] to win, so just got to figure that out,” Doncic stated after the loss to the Warriors. “It obviously felt like a playoff game. Obviously, the Warriors, since they acquired Jimmy [Butler], they've been playing unbelievably. So it was kind of a playoff game, and now we see what kind of team they are. Maybe we can meet them, maybe not, in the playoffs.

“We just need to be more ready.”

Even though the Lakers still maintain a top-four spot in the West standings after this loss, their margin for error has dropped significantly. Wins against Chicago and Golden State were there for the taking, yet Los Angeles' inability to close out these two games has suddenly led them to a scenario where falling out of the top four is a very real possibility.

The good news for the Lakers is that they play the Pelicans on Friday. New Orleans is limping to the finish line this season without all of their top talents, so Los Angeles should be able to get back on track with a win and temporarily remain ahead of the Warriors and others in the standings. They could even move ahead of Denver again should Golden State knock them off on Friday night.

The bad news is that the Lakers will play the Thunder in two straight road games ahead of Friday's game against New Orleans. The Lakers are 17-20 on the road this season, and Oklahoma City has only lost five home games all season. No team has been able to stop the Thunder, as they have won 18 of their last 19 games, including 11 straight.

Two wins would be huge for the Lakers, but all this team needs is to try and steal at least one on the road against the best team in the NBA. If they can do this, the Lakers will be well on their way to earning either the 3-seed or 4-seed in the West playoff picture. However, two straight losses in Oklahoma City could see Los Angeles fall to fifth or worse in the standings.

Hosting a first-round playoff series could be the difference between the Lakers going on a deep postseason run vs. losing in the first round, given their road woes this year.

At this point, the Lakers control their own fate. The other teams behind them in the standings don't mean anything unless Los Angeles loses games. After losing five of their last eight games, the Lakers have left the door open for many of their Western Conference rivals to gain momentum.

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) in the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Out of all the teams trailing the Nuggets, Lakers, and Warriors in the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves are certainly the most dangerous right now for a few reasons.

Aside from making it to the Western Conference Finals last season, Minnesota has been one of the hottest teams in the league next to Golden State. The Timberwolves have won 13 of their last 16 games, including two wins over Denver in this span. At the same time, the Nuggets and Detroit Pistons are the only two teams with a winning record that the Wolves defeated.

Anthony Edwards and his squad have faced an easy schedule down the stretch run of the season, and they've made the most of their opportunities to this point. Minnesota has five games remaining this season, three of which are against teams tanking for the first-overall pick in this year's draft. The other two games are on the road against the Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks.

There is a strong chance that the Timberwolves can win all five of their remaining games, especially given the recent struggles both Memphis and Milwaukee have faced. Taylor Jenkins was recently fired by the Grizzlies, and Damian Lillard remains out for the Bucks due to a blood clot issue in his calf.

If the Wolves win all five of these games, it creates an enormous amount of pressure on the Lakers and Warriors to match their rival's success. After all, Los Angeles leads Minnesota by 1.5 games, and Golden State is only leading them by a half-game. Tiebreakers could come into play, which don't favor the Timberwolves at the moment.

Even so, their easy remaining schedule could allow Minnesota to run the table and avoid the play-in tournament, which is their ultimate goal. The key question facing the Wolves is whether or not Anthony Edwards and all of their starters will continue to see a heavy workload and minutes against some of the worst teams in the league.

The Timberwolves defeated the Brooklyn Nets 105-90 on Thursday night, but Edwards was injured in the win. While moving backward on the sideline after attempting a three-point shot, Edwards turned his left ankle on Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez's foot, resulting in him being helped to the locker room.

Minnesota was able to breathe a major sigh of relief when Edwards started the second half and finished the game with 32 minutes, but this is a concern for the team and their chances of continuing to find success. Will Edwards' ankle flare up as the Timberwolves continue their five-game road trip?

This is certainly a key question to keep a close eye on in the Western Conference playoff picture over the final week of the regular season.

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