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Rockets Must Avoid Coveted Prospect at All Costs in the NBA Draft

Published 18 hours ago4 minute read

The NBA landscape will be much different at the start of the 2025-26 season. An already loaded Western Conference is about to get that much stronger. The OKC Thunder are ascending and will likely be defending champions. The Dallas Mavericks will presumably add Cooper Flagg, who projects to be a combination of Scottie Pippen and Jayson Tatum, per NBADraft.net. The Lakers will have a full season of Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Victor Wembanyama should be healthy, and the Spurs will likely add Dylan Harper to a loaded roster, and that's before any of the expected offseason movement.

The Houston Rockets were the surprise of the 2024-25 season by ending with the number two seed in the West. While they had a short stint in the playoffs, most analysts indicated they were far ahead of their expected timeline. Rumors are circling about big-name additions the Rockets could make to keep up with the increasingly competitive Western Conference, but they may be wise to take a more organic approach seen in Oklahoma City and San Antonio.

That means sitting tight and not pulling the trigger on a major draft day deal. While tempting to consider Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo in a Rockets uniform, recent history has shown that these major shakeups to a roster may not end in a championship parade. Only the Lakers in 2020 significantly changed their roster and added an All-NBA caliber player to their roster and found themselves hoisting a trophy (the Golden State Warriors and Kevin Durant don't count since that core was already championship material).

When looking at when and where to add to the loaded roster is somewhat in the eye of the beholder. For at least the next season, the rotation is seemingly set. However, just over the horizon, Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith, Jr.'s contracts will be coming up at the end of next year.

It may be easier to look at the roster and let go of Smith. Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Steven Adams, and even Dillon Brooks can all play significant minutes in the frontcourt. The backcourt depth is a bit unclear if VanVleet were to leave. Reed Sheppard is going to take time to develop. Aaron Holiday appears to be an eighth or ninth man. Cam Whitmore had a slight sophomore slump. The saga that is Jalen Green, while talented, may end with him in another uniform. The Rockets would be wise to take someone who can run the point with the tenth-overall pick.

The Rockets look to have the choice of two guards if they stay put at 10th overall. Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis look to fall in the 8-15 range of the draft. While both play the same position and have a knack for making their team better, there is a key difference between the two: three-point shooting.

Demin projects as a basketball virtuoso, knowing when and where the ball should go at all times. And that is terrific if you are a point guard in the late 1980s. But in the modern NBA, guards are expected to score and force defenses to have to cover them. Demin would be the exception to this.

At an early age, basketball players are taught some simple math. To be an efficient three-point shooter, you have to convert 33% of your attempts (assuming you hit 50% of your two-point attempts). If you can't do that, either work on your shot or stop shooting. According to the BYU Team site, Demin shoots 27.3% from three, chucking up 4.6 attempts per game. That projects to nearly a quarter of his games would end up 0-4 from three. Defenses could simply allow him to dribble outside the arc.

That isn't to say that Jakucionis doesn't have shortcomings. His shooting could use work, but he's closer to being a viable threat. He also doesn't project as a great defender. But one thing that fans who have followed head coach Ime Udoka know is that he gets the most out of his players on defense. Demin may have the upper hand there, but with coaching, the gap should close.

The modern game simply does not allow for players to have such a severe lack of threat on the offensive end. To compensate, Demin would have to turn into the legend of Shaun Livingston from mid-range. If the Rockets do go the route of guard in the draft, the last name fans should be hoping to hear is Demin's.

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House of Houston
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