The US market will calm down after Donald Trump officially becomes President, says Matt Orton, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment. According to Orton, while there may be some initial challenges, Trump's policies could bring clarity and stability to investors.

Orton believes that while tariffs on China will likely be introduced early in Trump's presidency, they may not be as severe as investors fear. He interprets the gesture of inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to the inauguration as an olive branch, signalling Trump’s willingness to negotiate.

He said that Trump’s initial tariff policies may appear aggressive, but they could be strategic moves to drive better trade deals soon.

Orton suggests that Trump’s approach to tariffs might encourage investors to diversify beyond the US. He remains cautiously optimistic that the worst-case tariff scenarios might not materialise, which could increase confidence in emerging and developed markets like India.

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India stands out as Orton’s largest overweight market outside the US. Despite the uncertain global environment, he remains constructive on India’s macroeconomic backdrop and has selectively invested in high-quality Indian companies like ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Bharti Airtel.

However, Orton advises caution amid current market volatility, describing the environment as a "technical no man's land." He recommends waiting for clear technical trends before making significant new investments.

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“I have been reticent to add too much more right now until I know where the dollar is going to go, and if we see bottoming in the strength of the dollar, at least for the near term, that is going to give investors some time to pause, for the market to rebuild the technical foundation, and then hopefully we will continue to see some good earnings from Indian companies. And that will be the mark to start seeing more upside,” he added.

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