, “sitting in place over or near land and dumping huge volumes of rain”. This trend was noticeable in the current flooding rain event and also the 2019 Townsville floods and the 2023 Cairns and Daintree floods.
For every degree of warming, the atmosphere can hold 7 per cent more moisture, according to the laws of thermodynamics. That makes humid weather more common and also increases the prevalence of heavy rainfall events because it means there is more water in the atmosphere that will eventually fall as rain.
Hotter oceans also hold more energy, Turton said, meaning they can also amplify the global water cycle when atmospheric conditions are suitable.
Scientia Professor Matthew England, a climate scientist at the University of NSW, said global ocean temperatures have risen by more than one degree, which meant a much more humid atmosphere.
“We know with absolute certainty that warmer oceans evaporate more moisture into the atmosphere, and we know that that loads the chances of heavier rainfall events,” England said.
“These sort of catastrophic flooding rains you’re seeing around the world are linked to warmer ocean temperatures, and it’s a natural consequence of global warming.”
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England was involved in previous research that found that climate change had made the catastrophic 2011 Brisbane floods three times more likely, when the seasonal effect of a La Nina climate system was stripped out.
England said an attribution study that would prove a link to climate change had not yet been done for the north Queensland floods. However, he said temperatures in the Coral Sea, next to where the flooding rains were occurring, were 1-2 degrees warmer than average in the lead-up.
These days attribution studies are being turned around quickly. World Weather Attribution has already done a rapid scientific analysis of the Los Angeles fires and found they were significantly worsened by climate change.
The 32 scientists from the United States and Europe found human-caused climate change worsened the ferocious Los Angeles wildfires by reducing rainfall, drying out vegetation and increasing the overlap between flammable drought conditions and strong Santa Ana winds.
The hot, dry and windy conditions that drove the fires were about 35 per cent more likely due to warming caused primarily by the burning of oil, gas and coal. Such conditions will become a further 35 per cent more likely if warming reaches 2.6 degrees, which is forecast by 2100 unless emissions are cut rapidly.
