In a turbulent turn of events, the Sahel region has surged into the spotlight, with a wave of nationalization of resources unfolding, igniting apprehensions among Western enterprises while presenting Russia with burgeoning opportunities. According to Oxford Economics, the Sahel's escalating hostility towards the West and ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) is apparent. Francois Conradi, Lead Political Economist at Oxford Economics, provides insight into the evolving landscape and its impact on foreign investments in the region. Recent developments have seen nations like Niger and Mali assert greater control over their natural resources, notably uranium and gold, respectively. In a decisive move, Niger's government took over the uranium mines overseen by Somair, a subsidiary of France, citing longstanding grievances about inadequate compensation and resource management. The French government, owning a dominant share in Somair, had been embroiled in tensions with the Nigerien government following political upheavals, exacerbated by the prospect of military intervention. Conradi highlighted, 'There's no love lost, and that political backdrop does inform the relations.' Similarly, Mali is entangled in a dispute over gold production levels with Barrick Gold, a Canadian mining corporation. While the seizure of Somair marks a definitive appropriation, Barrick's situation remains in flux, with Mali's authorities placing the mine under administration amidst a tax disagreement. Barrick's CEO, Mark Bristow, optimistically noted that outright nationalization might still be averted through diplomatic maneuvering and legal channels. The divergent scenarios in Niger and Mali underscore the complex dynamics foreign stakeholders face when engaging with the Sahel's resource-rich terrain. These strategic shifts have already begun to deter Western investments, as entities grapple with increased risks and uncertainty in asset security and operational stability. 'This cannot but break investment,' remarked Conradi, emphasizing how the atmosphere of hostility repels investors, compelling them to scout for more amicable environs such as Côte d'Ivoire. Thus, Russia’s maneuvering in the region signals an eagerness to foster alliances where Western engagement is receding. Russia's agenda might be seen as pragmatic, keen on tapping into resource frontiers where Western firms perceive too high a risk. This interest coincides with a period of elevated gold prices, which could incentivize increased production. However, Conradi cautions against long-term reliance on such volatile markets, as potential downturns might undermine the economic viability of these resource-dependent transactions. In the grander scheme, these developments signal a crucial juncture for the Sahel. As governments endeavor to assert control over their resources, the calculus for prospective investors grows increasingly intricate. Investors must weigh the potential for lucrative returns against the volatile political landscape and the prospect of governmental renegotiation or expropriation of assets. Moving forward, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable, crafting strategies in anticipation of a shifting geopolitical chessboard. Nations in the Sahel, poised between their national interests and the need for foreign investment, face the intricate task of balancing these elements to ensure economic stability and growth. Francois Conradi concludes, 'The potential for real profits needs to be clear-cut; otherwise, investments will naturally gravitate towards more stable jurisdictions,' highlighting the tightrope these economies must navigate in attracting beneficial investments while asserting resource sovereignty.