Thursday, June 26, 2025

The global leisure travel market is projected to reach a staggering $15 trillion by 2040, according to a comprehensive new report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). This growth is expected to be driven largely by emerging markets such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam, which are set to outpace traditional tourism powerhouses like the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany.

The changing landscape of international tourism is expected to transform the global travel industry over the next two decades, with significant implications for travel companies, destinations, and economies worldwide.

This forecast paints an optimistic picture for the future of global tourism. While traditional markets like the US, UK, and Germany have historically been key players in the global travel scene, the next wave of growth is being driven by nations where middle-class populations are rising, disposable incomes are increasing, and more people are looking to explore international destinations. As a result, these emerging markets are expected to become the backbone of global tourism.

The report highlights how countries in Asia and the Middle East are poised to lead the charge in leisure travel. In particular, China and India are seen as major players due to their large, young, and increasingly affluent populations. As these nations continue to modernize and urbanize, more individuals are able to afford international travel, with a growing appetite for both leisure and cultural exploration.

China, already the world’s largest outbound travel market, is projected to continue expanding its influence on global tourism. As the Chinese middle class continues to grow, the demand for both domestic and international travel will increase, with Chinese tourists becoming key drivers of global spending in the leisure travel sector.

India, with its rapidly growing middle class and young population, is also set to play a significant role in the future of leisure travel. By 2040, India’s tourism spending is expected to surpass many Western nations, as more Indians begin to explore foreign destinations, whether for vacation or business.

Saudi Arabia, with its expanding tourism sector driven by Vision 2030, is another emerging market that is expected to contribute significantly to the global tourism boom. The Saudi government is making substantial investments in tourism infrastructure, with plans to boost both domestic and international travel. The growing number of religious tourists visiting Saudi Arabia for pilgrimages like Hajj and Umrah will also contribute to the country’s overall tourism growth.

Vietnam, which has seen rapid economic growth in recent years, is another emerging market that is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the future of global tourism. As the country’s middle class expands, more Vietnamese citizens are likely to travel abroad, driving up both leisure and business tourism globally.

While these emerging markets are expected to outpace traditional tourism giants, the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany will continue to play an important role in the global tourism landscape. These countries remain key sources of both outbound and inbound tourists, contributing significantly to the overall growth of the industry.

As tourism spending in emerging markets rises, the global travel industry will experience major shifts. In particular, destinations, airlines, and hospitality companies will need to adapt their offerings to cater to the changing preferences and demands of travelers from these regions.

For example, Chinese, Indian, and Saudi travelers tend to have different expectations and preferences when it comes to travel experiences. These groups are increasingly seeking luxury accommodations, unique cultural experiences, and family-friendly destinations. As a result, global travel providers will need to tailor their products and services to meet the needs of these evolving consumer bases.

The demand for new destinations is also expected to rise, with emerging markets seeking to explore untapped regions. As travelers from these countries look for new experiences, previously overlooked destinations may see an influx of international visitors. This trend could lead to a shift in the traditional tourism focus, with new regions becoming hotspots for both leisure and business tourism.

In addition to changing consumer preferences, the rise of emerging markets in global tourism will have significant economic implications. Tourism is already a key driver of economic growth in many regions, and the expansion of the global leisure travel market will provide further opportunities for job creation, infrastructure development, and foreign exchange earnings.

Technology and innovation will play an essential role in shaping the future of leisure travel. As the global tourism market grows, new tools and technologies will help companies meet the evolving needs of travelers. For example, advancements in mobile technology, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality will revolutionize how people plan, book, and experience their travel.

For travelers from emerging markets, access to these technologies will make travel planning easier, more affordable, and more convenient. Additionally, digital platforms and online booking systems will play an increasingly important role in facilitating international travel, making it easier for individuals to access global destinations.

Furthermore, improvements in transportation infrastructure, such as high-speed rail networks and new air travel routes, will make it easier for travelers to explore new destinations both within and outside of their home countries.

The global leisure travel market is on track to reach $15 trillion by 2040, with emerging markets like China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam expected to lead the way in tourism growth. While traditional markets like the US, UK, and Germany will continue to play a significant role in the industry, the rise of these new players is set to transform the global travel landscape.

As travel companies and governments look to capitalize on this growth, the need to understand and cater to the preferences of emerging market tourists will be crucial. By leveraging technology and innovation, the global tourism industry can continue to meet the demands of a diverse and increasingly mobile global population.

Source: Boston Consulting Group, U.S. Department of Commerce