writes on former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai’s political Trajectory vis a vis his recent defection from the All Progressives Congress to the Social Democratic Party.

Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) did not come as a surprise to keen observers of the former Kaduna state governor.

His body language, after he was denied ministerial appointment by President BolaTinubu in 2023, spoke volumes about his intentions.

Indications that he may dump the APC started showing when, in March 2024, he visited  the National Chairman of the SDP in Abuja. El-Rufai’s visit to the SDP chairman fuelled insinuations that he may leave the APC for the SDP.

El-Rufai was a founding member of the APC and a two-term governor of Kaduna state, elected on the platform of the APC.

On Monday, March 10, 2025, thirteen months after his visit to the SDP national secretariat in Abuja, the former governor announced his resignation from the party and his decision to join the SDP.

In his resignation letter, published on his Facebook page, El-Rufai expressed disappointment with the APC’s leadership, accusing it of abandoning the party’s founding principles and treating members with contempt.

“Today, 10th March 2025, I have submitted a letter resigning my membership of the APC to my ward in Kaduna, effective immediately”, the resignation letter reads.

He said, “Prior to this step, I had concluded consultations with my mentors, colleagues, and loyalists across the country about the future.

“I have now decided to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities.

“Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and bye-elections between now and 2027 by the Grace of God.

 “I therefore call on all our supporters and other persons concerned about our country’s future to join us in the SDP in the journey towards making Nigeria flourish as a beacon of pride for Africans and the Black Race”.

Before his defection, El-Rufai had criticised  the party and its leadership, including his exclusion from President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet despite his support during the election.

Speaking in Abuja in January 2025, at a national conference on strengthening democracy, El-Rufai described the current state of governance and opposition in Nigeria as a “national emergency.”

Highlighting alleged lack of internal democracy within the APC, he declared that, “No party organ has met in two years—no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show. You cannot afford to have illiterates, semi-illiterates, and cunning people as your leaders. This is why we end up with the poor leadership we have today”.

He maintained that “the problems that led to the formation of the APC remained unresolved, but I no longer believe the APC is interested in addressing them”.

Apparently hinting about his plans to defect, he said the distance between him and the party was widening.

El-Rufai called on opposition parties to form a broad coalition to challenge the ruling APC.

His exit from the APC is probably the best option for his political survival, especially, considering the fact that those he fought and chased out of the party in Kaduna state, have all returned to the party.

In 2018, El-Rufai had a running battle with Senators Suleiman Hunkuyi, Shehu Sani and DanjumaLa’ah who represented Kaduna north, central and southern senatorial zones respectively for rejecting the $350m loan from the World Bank.

The three Senators had blocked the former governor from collecting the loan on the grounds that Kaduna was the second most indebted state after Lagos, and taking the loan was going to enslave the people.

For blocking the loan, El-Rufai ensure that Sani and Hukunyi both members of APC at the time did not return to the Senate in 2019 and frustrated them out of the party.

At a political rally in Kaduna in 2018, El-Rufai rained curses on them for rejecting the World Bank loan and asked residents of Kaduna to shave their heads and beard when the Senators come to Kaduna from Abuja.

Sani eventually left the opposition PDP, while Hunkuyi left for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) where he was the party’s governorship candidate in 2019.

Now that Sani and Hunkuyi have returned to the APC, including La’ah who recently defected from the PDP to the  APC, the party would have been too hot for el-Rufai to stay.

Analysts opined that with this scenario in Kaduna, El-Rufai stand little or no chance of making any serious impact in the APC.

Furthermore, the allegations following investigations by the Kaduna State House of Assembly that N423 billion was embezzled by government officials during El-Rufai’s eight-year reign in Kaduna, is a minus to his political relevance in the APC, even though the former governor had denied the allegations.

Observers of Kaduna politics, are of the opinion that with political heavyweights like Senator Shehu Sani, Senator Suleiman Hukunyi and former governor RamalanYero, among several others in APC, El-Rufai no longer has relevance and influence in the party.

In its reaction to the defection, the  Kaduna State chapter of the APC said that it will not lose sleep over the defection of El-Rufai to the SDP.

In an interview with newsmen on Monday in Kaduna, Yahaya Baba-Pate, State Secretary of the APC, said the APC  remained unperturbed by the defection of the former governor.

According to Baba-Pate, the party  is  focused on delivering Kaduna to President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027.

He expressed confidence in the party’s growing strength in Kaduna, noting that  high-profile politicians in the state are joining the party daily.

“We are unperturbed by former governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to another party.

Our main focus in Kaduna is on how to deliver the state to both President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027.

“The APC in Kaduna State is growing day by day, judging from the calibre of politicians streaming into the party on a daily basis.

“So, we are not disturbed by anybody defecting to another party based on our governor’s inclusive governance in the state.

“We are not disturbed, and we are not going to lose our sleep over El-rufai’s moves. The party in the state is growing more than before,” Baba-Pate said.

El-Rufai’s sojourn into politics started in 1999 with his membership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Though he has always insisted that he had never been a card carrying member of the party, he served in various capacities under the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo,  first as the Director-General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) in 1999.

In 2003, Obasanjo appointed him Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

These appointments made him visible in the Nigerian political scene.

In 2013, he was among the politicians who founded the APC, a coalition of  four opposition parties that merged to uproot the PDP from power.

He contested for the governor of Kaduna state on the platform of the APC in Kaduna state and won.

According to him, former President Muhammadu Buhari asked him to run for the governorship.

Before running for the election, El-Rufai was said to be little known in Kaduna state and had no political structure.

It was learnt  that he rode on the popularity of people like the incumbent governor, Senator Uba Sani, Suleiman Hukunyi, Shehu Sani among several others to defeat RamalanYero who was the incumbent governor and candidate of the ruling PDP at the time.

In 2019, he won the governorship for a second term after a keenly contested election with IsahAshiru of the PDP.

His critics described his administration as one of the worst and most divisive in Kaduna state. He is also accused of discriminating and marginalising the Southern Kaduna people.

Many people also allegedly lost their homes and means of livelihood as a result of his demolition. Several court cases are said to be in various courts challenging some of El-Rufai’s demolitions.

His eight-year administration, according to his critics, was traumatisingto many residents.

“He left Kaduna worst than he made it. He widened the gulf among Muslims and Christians and discriminated against Southern Kaduna people in terms of  projects.

According to Mohammed Aliyu, a member of the APC in Kaduna state, “El-Rufai has no support base in Kaduna.

According to him: “The few people that are supporting him, are either his appointees when he was governor or those who benefit from contracts  by his government. So his defection to the SDP, as far as I am concerned, is of no effect to the APC.”

What impact will El-Rufai make in SDP? This will be determined in 2027.