Most popular upset picks by March Madness bracket experts for 2025
Filling out a March Madness bracket is equal parts fun and terrifying. There are so many paths one can go down. Do you side with chalk? Do you go out on a ledge and pick the big upset? Which No. 12 seed will take down the No. 5 seed? Will the No. 1 seeds make it all the way to the end?
We've looked at half a dozen NCAA Tournament brackets from college basketball analysts to get a better idea of what the experts are thinking. The complete comparison can be found here.
Obviously, not every expert bracket comes into play in this comparison. Still, there's a big enough sample size to guide us towards the upsets that the pros are expecting. What do brackets from Nicole Auerbach, Bill Bender, Jay Bilas, Mike DeCourcy, John Fanta, Andy Katz, Michael Cohen, Matt Norlander and Jon Rothstein have to say?
Let's be honest here: Fans are watching on Thursday and Friday hoping to see some true stunners. It's no fun watching a No. 3 seed casually swat away the No. 14 seed. We want blood.
For experts like Auerbach, Bender, Fanta, Norlander and Rothstein, Texas A&M better be wary of No. 13 seed Yale despite being a 7.5-point favorite.
The Bulldogs have won 16 of their last 17 games, storming through the Ivy League to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. And they have one of the key markers for tournament success: Great guard play via John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng.
The West Region also holds a popular upset pick in No. 12 seed Colorado State over No. 5 seed Memphis. Auerbach, Bender, DeCourcy, Norlander and Rothstein are all riding with the Rams. That makes sense since CSU is a 2.5-point favorite.
CSU avoided Selection Sunday drama by winning the Mountain West tournament. They're 25-9 on the season having won 10 games in a row, including two victories over March Madness snub Boise State. Guard Nique Clifford makes it all go with 19.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He leads the team in all those marks.
Of course, the upset sure to get the most people talking would be No. 13 seed High Point over No. 4 Purdue. Auerbach and Fanta are the only ones bold enough to take this one, but it would be fun. There's always one team no one's ever heard of who makes waves in the tourney.
The Panthers come to the Big Dance via the Big South. They were a doormat just a few years ago, but they rose to become the No. 1 seed in the Big South Tournament last year. They suffered a heartbreaking upset to end their season. This year, at 29-5, they took care of business and have the reward of making their first NCAA Tournament. If they notch their first NCAA Tournament win, it'll be because French guard Kezza Giffa delivered a standout performance.
Michigan's impressive Big Ten Tournament triumph was short-lived for Cohen, Fanta and Norlander. They've all got No. 12 seed UC San Diego shocking the Wolverines and more.
The Tritons won the Big West, an impressive feat considering they moved up from Division II in 2020. This was the first year they were eligible to go to the NCAA Tournament. Guards Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray give UCSD a formidable backcourt.
Oddsmakers see the danger for Michigan. The Wolverines are only a 2.5-point favorite. And the bracket experts don't just see them as a threat to the Big Ten champs. After a first-round upset, Cohen, Fanta and Norlander see the Tritons moving on to the Sweet 16 with a win over No. 4 seed Texas A&M or No. 13 seed Yale.
Fanta is bold enough to take his Cinderella Pick all the way to the Elite Eight with a win over No. 1 seed Auburn. No. 2 seed Michigan State is the pick to finally put an end to their run.
Neither Maryland or BYU are particularly low in this year's bracket, but that doesn't mean they can't be responsible for some bracket busting.
If No. 1 Florida meets their demise in the Sweet 16, Katz and Norlander have the No. 4 seed Terrapins pushing them off the ledge. Katz even likes Maryland over No. 3 seed Texas Tech to make it to the Final Four. Having five players averaging double digits this season may be part of that equation. Freshman Derik Queen, junior Ja'Kobi Gillespie, sophomore Rodney Rice and seniors Julian Reese and Selton Miguel bring a great mix of youthful vigor and veteran wisdom to the table.
As for BYU, they make a run to the Sweet 16 and even the Eight in some expert brackets. Bender, Bilas, Cohen, DeCourcy, Katz and Norlander have the Cougars toppling No. 3 seed Wisconsin. In the Sweet 16, Bender, Cohen, DeCourcy and Katz all have them pulling off an upset over No. 2 seed Alabama.
The First Four adds a complicated wrinkle to any bracket. Picking a game with two potential opponents isn't exactly a science. A lot of people stick with the team we know will be there, but some of the experts went a different route — and doubled down.
Most of the experts we looked at actually picked either Texas or Xavier to beat Illinois. Bilas and Katz went with the Longhorns. Cohen, Fanta and Norlander picked the Musketeers.
Fanta's bracket was the most chaotic with upsets and Cinderella's galore. Xavier was one of them with a second-round shocker over No. 3 seed Kentucky.
Xavier was on a seven-game winning streak before losing to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. There's a lot to like about the duo of forward Zach Freemantle and guard Ryan Conwell.
Texas the opposite season ending. They lost eight of their last 11 games of the regular season. Fighting for their March Madness hopes in the SEC Tournament, they toppled Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. Those victories got them into the NCAA Tournament.
It has been a rough year for Drake, the rapper. But for the Drake Bulldogs, just about everything has gone right. The No. 11 seed rolled through the Missouri Valley Conference, posting a 30-3 record and taking the regular-season and MVC tournament championships. Things could get even better if more than a few experts have things right.
Matched up against No. 6 seed Missouri, the Bulldogs are the upset pick for Auerbach, Bender, Fanta, Norlander and Rothstein. Bender, Norlander and Rothstein also like Drake over No. 3 seed Texas Tech
A Sweet 16 run would be a hell of an outcome for a program that hasn't made it out of the first round since 1971.