For some, it might seem that Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony have cleared the highest hurdle in their baseball journeys — making the leap between Worcester and the parent club in Boston.

And indeed, that is an accomplishment in itself. Not every quality prospects gets even that far and reaching their destination in such a relatively short period of time is no easy feat. Some, even the most hyped, don’t get that far.

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But now that these Red Sox top prospects have made it to the big leagues, the hard work is actually only now beginning. That’s largely true for two reasons, one of which is the most obvious: Major League Baseball is the best collection of baseball talent in the world.

Then again, that’s always been true. But what makes the task even harder is the growing realization that the gap between Triple A and the big leagues is bigger than ever before — a belief that is widespread among managers, coaches, evaluators and players themselves.

“It’s big,” confirmed Red Sox manager Alex Cora knowingly earlier this week. “It’s really big.”

Conversations with various people throughout the industry confirms this, and recent examples are everywhere. Last year, the Baltimore Orioles promoted Jackson Holiday, who was then, as Anthony is now, the game’s top prospect.

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Yet for all the buildup and expectations, Holiday proved not to be ready for prime time. In his first 10 games, after which he was returned to the minors, he was 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts. After an addition few months of development, Holiday returned for the final two months and showed minimal improvement, with a slash line of .219/.287/.351.

Only now, in his first full season, is Holiday starting to resemble a potential star with a respectable .759 OPS and eight homers through his first 60 games in 2025.

Campbell is another cautionary tale. After a stellar first few weeks that earned him American League Rookie of the Month for March/April, Campbell, despite some better at-bats in the last week, has struggled mightily. Since May 4, Campbell has a lowly .471 OPS with four extra-base hits in his last 114 at bats.

Campbell and Holiday are living proof — and Mayer and Anthony may soon join them — that along the path from the minors to the majors, that last step is a doozy.

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“I’d agree with that,” concurred one American League evaluator, who sees a lot of Triple A and major league games as part of his job. “It’s become more and more glaring just in the last probably two or three years. It’s always been big; now it’s huge."

“I think that’s true," said a National League executive. “I can’t remember a time when it’s been this large.”

Multiple industry observers, all speaking on he condition of anonymity, had various theories about why the gulf has never been bigger.

1) Increased velocity

Hitters at Triple A may see quality stuff at the minor’s upper levels. But they’re not seeing 99 mph fastballs as a way of life, as they are in the big leagues.

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“You can see it with some of these guys that have been .200 hitters in the big leagues,” said one scout. “Then you look down at Triple A and they’re hitting .280. Then, they go back to the big leagues and they’re back to being around the Mendoza Line (.200). I think it’s always been there; we tend to fall for recency bias. But it’s pretty pronounced now.”

“Teams are having players hunt homers and hard contact every single plate appearance,” said another. “We don’t value the ability to put the bat on the ball. So I think, over the course of the last five or six years, when all of this really blew up, what we’re seeing now is it’s turned into an all-or-nothing proposition. Guys are up there swinging for the fences all the time, and finding they can’t make contact against 98-99 mph. So you get a lot of strikeouts.

“There’s no plan of attack — from both sides, hitters and pitchers. Pitchers are throwing it up there as hard as they can, and hitters are swinging from their (rear end) at whatever’s up there.”

When hitters are taught to sell out on every swing, there are going to be a lot of slow walks back to the dugout.

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2) Analytics and expectations cause teams to rush prospects to the majors.

“We’re so reliant on the date and what the numbers say,” offered one evaluator, “thinking that that alone is going to produce results. We value exit velocity and hard-hit rates, and think that when those are good, it means the kid is ready.

“But there’s no nuance, nothing that’s going to help them with two strikes. Or no emphasis on going the other way or moving runners, so all they know is to swing big.”

“Data expectations,” said the NL executive. “They create the new ETA for players, and then they feel compelled to follow that timetable. And it’s worse at the lower levels, like (going from Rookie ball to Low A). But most people don’t see that.”

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All of which has led to impatience on the part of teams. It used to be the game had a guiding principal that it was best to keep prospects in the minors long enough for them to experience struggle, on the theory that it would be better to try to overcome failure for the first time in a development environment rather than in the middle of a playoff race.

But no longer.

“As soon as they do well, (thinking is), ‘We’ve got to stick a rocket up their butt and get them to the big leagues as soon as possible,’ ” said a scout.

Campbell is the perfect example: he spent time at three different levels (Single A, Double A and Triple A) and excelled at each. When that was pointed out to a rival evaluator this spring, he shot back: “That’s because he didn’t have time (to fail anywhere)!”

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And now, Campbell is dealing with adversity as a player being counted on as an everyday player for the Red Sox. He continues to play second base most every day, in part because the Red Sox don’t have any alternatives.

“It’s not good for the player,” bemoaned one official. “It’s not good for the organization in the long run. And ultimately, it’s not good for the game. We rush the most talented players so quickly, rather than let them figure it out mentally.

“We’ve sped this while thing up so much, it’s out of control. Jackson Holiday had to be in the big leagues by 21? No! It’s like, if you’re not in the big leagues by the time you’re 24, it’s like, ‘I don’t even know why you’re playing.’

3) Baseball’s minor league contraction.

Several years ago, Major League Baseball eliminated 40 affiliated teams, an average of a little more than one per franchise. Those eliminated teams came at the lowest rungs of the minor league ladder — locally, the Red Sox lost their Rookie Ball affiliate in the New York-Penn League in Lowell — and served hasten the development process.

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Suddenly, players had one less step in their development.

“That hurt the development process,” said one official.

“That’s contributed to the demise of a lot young players,” said a team official. “And I think it’s filtered up to the top and impacts the guys getting to the big leagues. They’ve been pushed through and they’re not ready. They haven’t learned to play the game at the pro speed, but that doesn’t matter to them because the data measure that.”

4) External pressure and surrounding hype

There’s more attention paid to elite prospects than ever before. In New England, Red Sox fans can watch many of the Worcester Red Sox’ games on NESN.

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Additionally, coverage of the minor leagues is far more widespread and comprehensive. A decade ago, fans would have heard (or read about) Anthony’s nearly 500-foot grand slam in Worcester the weekend before his promotion; in 2025, they could watch it endlessly on social media.

That spotlight continues to follow them when they reach their destination, too.

“The game’s hard enough physically,’' noted a veteran evaluator. ”But you had in the mental part and it’s miserable. And now with Twitter (X), every single person thinks they can do your job, my job, Craig Breslow’s job and Alex Cora’s job...and they now have a voice.

“Kids today believe everything they read. So, now they’re struggling in front of 40,000 people every night, they’re struggling on TV and now they go back to their room and they’re on Instagram or Twitter and it’s all over there that they stink. How can that not be tough on them mentally?”

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5) The growth of the Prospect Industrial Complex

It’s been said — only half-jokingly – that some front office executives would rather have their minor league systems ranked No. 1 by Baseball America than win a pennant.

Owners can be convinced that the pipeline is full of young, talented and — key work here — inexpensive help is on the way. No need to overspend on established players in the free agent market when you can promise the eminent arrival of good, cheap labor.

“You’ve got guys who rush their best prospects to the big leagues because they’e got to show results and they’re afraid to lose their job,” one official with an American League team. “ ‘Let’s rush these guys here,’ and hope that you get lightning in a bottle and you come up with a Jacob Wilson or Mason Miller are doing (for the Athletics). It’s like, ‘Look at what we did!’ But nobody’s thinking about what year two or three or four of their careers is going to look like.

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“It’s all about instant gratification.”

________________________

One scout who has seen the Red Sox extensively believes that the Sox would be better sending Kristian Campbell back to Worcester while he figures things out.

“Mechanically, everything looks the same to me (as he was in April). Everything’s the game,” the scout said. “I think it’s more mental. There are times when it looks like he’s guessing. He’s so in his own head right now.

“I think resets are good things. Everyone will be looking at as a demotion as a negative, and I don’t agree with that at all. For a kid that young and essentially new to pro ball, there are times where you need to get away from the noise. Right now, getting away from the noise, is important for someone like that.”

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The scout also took a dim view of the Red Sox working Campbell out at first base – an experiment since abandoned — did Campbell no favors while he was trying to figure things out at the plate.

“I’m a big believer that no kid should ever be doing something at the big league level that’s new to them, like a new position,” said the scout. “First base, second base, center field....I mean, you’re 22 years old. That’s what the minor leagues are for.

“If you want him to play first base, send him down for 15 days and let him play first base 12 of those days and let him get his feet wet where it’s not going to show up on SportsCenter or the MLB Network every night. You can’t overload these guys; they’ve got enough the way it is. It’s hard enough to struggle. And then, in the midst of that struggle, you’re going to say, “Hey, while you struggle, we’re going to say, ‘Hey, we’re going to change your position as well.’

“Where’s his mind going to be? How can you blame him (for struggling)?”

Read the original article on MassLive.