The race to the 2027 gubernatorial election in Kwara State is on. More intriguing is the complicated task of finding Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s successor among a horde of persons and zones angling for the plum position, MANSUR ARAMIDE reports.

There is popular sentiment that the 2027 governorship seat in the State of Harmony should be ceded to Kwara North, particularly in the spirit of equity, fairness, and justice. However, translating that call into political reality may not be as straightforward as it sounds.

Certainly, the justification for zoning may appear both convincing and noble. Yet, in a democracy where electoral outcomes are ultimately determined by numbers, the principle of equity alone may not suffice to sway the tide. This numerical reality could, in fact, complicate or even derail the push for a power shift to Kwara North.

A brief look at recent political history reinforces this point. In 2019, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara State successfully displaced the dominance of the then-ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), marking a significant political realignment in the state’s power structure.

The political tsunami that swept away the PDP in 2019 was reaffirmed in the 2023 elections and was widely attributed to the unwavering support of the Kwara Central. Without this core backing, the historic political revolution that reshaped the state’s leadership landscape may never have materialised.

However, caution must be exercised moving forward. While the Central Senatorial District remains significant due to its substantial population, it is unlikely that the ruling APC will risk leaving it open to the opposition.

Stakeholders from less populated districts, now positioning themselves for the 2027 governorship, may face significant resistance if their ambitions overlook this demographic reality.

Recent political undercurrents suggest that the PDP is closely monitoring these developments. Like a cat waiting to pounce, the party is poised to exploit any misstep by the APC, particularly the possibility of the ruling party overlooking a viable candidate from the Central, seeking to reclaim power through the cracks of intra-party miscalculations.

While some stakeholders from Kwara North continue to push for fairness as a sentimental strategy for 2027, and are increasingly backed by sympathisers calling for a senatorial coalition with the South, the Kwara Central remains notably calm. Buoyed by its numerical advantage and a pool of viable aspirants, including the serving Senator Saliu Mustapha, the district appears confident in its strategic position.

Sympathisers within the APC have not hesitated to remind agitators of the practical realities of electoral politics. Drawing from well-established strategies across the country, they argue that successful parties often nominate candidates from majority zones, not minority ones, regardless of sentimental appeals.

Citing Oyo State as an example, they note how the dominance of Ibadan’s population routinely shapes the outcome of governorship elections. A similar pattern is evident in Benue State, where the Tiv, as the demographic majority, have continually produced governors while other ethnic blocs remain marginalised in that regard.

References were also made to Kebbi State, where Kebbi North has historically been favoured for the governorship slot. In contrast, southern Kaduna in neighbouring Kaduna State has remained politically sidelined, with zoning the ticket to the minority region largely viewed as unrealistic.

Supporters of Kwara Central’s bid argue that the ultimate aim of any political party is to win elections, not to be rigidly bound by the ideals of equity, fairness, and justice when these principles risk undermining electoral success.

In their view, political pragmatism must take precedence in the contest for power. Even the Emir of Ilorin, though a traditional ruler and not a politician, has subtly reinforced the significance of Kwara Central in the unfolding political equation.

During a recent audience with stakeholders at his palace, Dr. Ibrahim Sulu-Gambari underscored the centrality of the district and alluded to its rightful claim to once again produce the next occupant of the Ahmadu Bello Government House.

The Emir’s position was further echoed at a recent Walimat Qur’an ceremony held in Agbaji, Ilorin. There, Alhaji Ibrahim Oniye, the Makama of Ilorin Emirate, declared unequivocally: “Ilorin for number one in the 2027 governorship election is non-negotiable and there is no going back.” He stressed that Ilorin would not settle for a subordinate role, insisting that the number one position in the state’s leadership is sacrosanct and must remain within Kwara Central.

However, as the 2027 general election draws closer, influential stakeholders, party leaders, and well-meaning citizens of Kwaran have continued to offer politically strategic counsel to Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq. Their position is clear: for APC to retain its grip on power, the party’s gubernatorial ticket must be retained in Kwara Central. Their argument rests on hard electoral logic that Kwara Central commands the largest voting population and has the capacity to deliver nearly 50 per cent of the total votes in the state. This demographic advantage, they argue, makes the district the undeniable determinant of where the pendulum of victory will swing in 2027.

These voices have cautioned the governor and the APC leadership against yielding to calls for a power shift to the North, describing such demands as based on imaginary agreements and sentiments that could weaken the party’s winning chances. In their view, there is no binding accord to rotate the governorship and, therefore, no justification to jeopardise electoral success on the altar of emotional appeal.

Indeed, Kwara Central boasts a formidable lineup of political heavyweights capable of flying the party’s flag. Among them are Yahaya Seriki; the former Minister of National Planning and current Director-General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, Prof. Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman; and the serving senator, Saliu Mustapha. Each of them, they insist, is tested, trusted, and equipped to sustain the APC’s hold on power in 2027.

Kwara Central carries a deep electoral legacy, one rooted in its consistent ability to leverage bulk votes from its five strategic local governments, Ilorin West, Ilorin South, Ilorin East, Asa, and parts of Moro, to deliver decisive victories. This historic pattern of dominance reinforces the district’s centrality in determining the outcome of governorship contests in the state.

To ignore the mounting calls from APC stakeholders urging the party to nominate its 2027 gubernatorial candidate from the Central would be tantamount to swimming against the tide of history. For the ruling party, such a miscalculation could prove costly.

Interestingly, if the PDP decides to field its own standard-bearer from Kwara Central, it would be a clear signal that the party has taken stock of its 2023 misstep, when it nominated a candidate from Kwara North and failed to dislodge an incumbent from the more populous Central, where the sitting governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, secured re-election largely due to the overwhelming voting strength of his district.

In this context, the APC is under no binding obligation to honour any unwritten or undocumented power rotation arrangement. Political survival, they argue, must take precedence. To gamble with sentiments at the expense of strategy could expose the party to a devastating electoral backlash.

Nevertheless, proponents of the power shift in Kwara North are resolute. Drawing from the sequence of leadership since 1999, Bukola Saraki from Kwara Central (1999–2007), AbdulFatah Ahmed from Kwara South (2007–2015), and AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq from Kwara Central again (2019–2027). They argue that, for the sake of balance and fairness, it is only just that the next governor emerges from the North in 2027. Their call, while steeped in emotion, also reflects a broader yearning to correct historical exclusion and achieve symbolic inclusion in the state’s leadership rotation.

It is within this context that proponents of power shift in Kwara North have rallied behind Tajudeen Abdulkadir Audu, popularly known as Makama Lafiagi, a prominent chieftain of APC, as their preferred choice to succeed the incumbent governor in 2027.

For Tajudeen Audu, a man of many parts, the path appears increasingly open, largely due to his stature as the most visible and influential political figure in Kwara North, which comprises Moro, Pategi, Edu, Baruten, and Kaiama local government areas.

While Audu may likely emerge as the consensus candidate from Kwara North, stakeholders in the zone have already begun efforts to foster unity among aspirants, aiming to avoid a fractured front ahead of the APC primary elections next year.

Unwavering in their pursuit of the governorship seat in 2027, leaders and activists from Kwara North have intensified calls for power rotation, insisting that the demand is anchored in the principles of fairness and equity.

Recently, a coalition of stakeholders drawn from various political parties convened at the GRA residence in Ilorin under the leadership of Senator Mohammed Ahmed, the convener of the meeting. They resolved to present a united front as the 2027 general election approaches.

In a communiqué issued at the conclusion of the gathering, the group affirmed that the time has come for Kwara North to produce the next state governor, describing the demand as “highly desirable” following years of perceived marginalisation.

“The meeting reiterated its stand on the need for the Kwara North Senatorial District to be given the opportunity of producing the next governor. Kwara North for Governor 2027 is highly desirable,” the communiqué read in part.

The stakeholders further expressed appreciation for the traditional rulers and youth groups who have sustained the agitation, emphasising that unity and consistency remain the key drivers of success.

To propel their 2027 agenda forward, the meeting resolved to establish a high-powered committee tasked with addressing the political and developmental challenges confronting the district, as well as crafting a clear strategic framework for engagement across Kwara State.

But despite the clamour from Kwara North, the lawmaker representing Kwara South, Senator Lola Ashiru, dismissed zoning of the state’s governorship ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Ashiru, who is the Deputy Senate leader, insisted Kwara 2027 governorship, like previous elections, would not be based on zoning because “governorship is never zoned in Kwara State.”

The APC chieftain insisted that the incumbent governor had emerged twice because he contested and won the governorship based on merit, competence and acceptance.

He said: “Anybody who wants to become the governor must be prepared to work hard, campaign hard, and convince the people to vote for him. While I sympathised with the North for a long time, aside from the Shaaba Lafiagi period – Lafiagi was not even given the governorship of Kwara State on zoning, he fought for it, he worked hard for it, he campaigned for it, he bargained for it.