As global tensions escalate following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites—described by Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi as an act with “everlasting consequences”—the ripple effects could be devastating for Africa’s already fragile energy supply chain.
A looming threat is Iran’s long-standing but now intensifying threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint through which over 20 million barrels of oil pass daily, representing nearly a fifth of global consumption.
While such a closure would be a direct jab at Western powers, especially the U.S., the collateral damage would be severe for Africa, whose economies heavily rely on imported refined petroleum products, mostly shipped from or through the Gulf.
According to Reuters, oil prices increased on Monday to their highest since January as the United States’ weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns. Market data shows Brent crude futures were up $1.52 or 1.97 per cent to $78.53 a barrel as of 0503 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.51 or 2.04 per cent to $75.35.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints in the global oil supply chain. Strategically located between Oman and Iran, this narrow passage connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and, further beyond, to the Arabian Sea. At its tightest point, the strait measures just 33 kilometers wide, with shipping lanes restricted to a mere 3 kilometers—making it both vital and vulnerable.
This maritime corridor is of immense geopolitical importance, particularly to the United States and other global powers, given that the stability of the world economy is closely tied to the free flow of oil through this route.
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption—between 17.8 million and 20.8 million barrels per day—passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This includes crude oil, condensate, and refined fuels, according to data from energy analytics firm Vortexa. The bulk of this oil is exported by key OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, with most of it destined for markets in Asia.
To secure this vital artery, the U.S. Fifth Fleet, stationed in Bahrain, plays a crucial role in protecting commercial vessels navigating the region.
Iran has long issued threats to shut down the strait, and in the wake of a dramatic escalation—following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites—those threats have gained new urgency. Closing the strait would immediately trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices, fuelling inflation in the U.S. and beyond. For Iran, it could be a direct means of retaliating against Washington’s actions.
However, such a move would also backfire economically on Tehran. Iranian oil exports rely on the very same waterway. Any disruption would not only choke its own revenue streams but could also drag Gulf Arab states—some of whom are already voicing strong disapproval of the conflict—into a wider war aimed at securing their own interests.
The impact would extend far beyond the region. China, for instance, imports nearly 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, despite sanctions. A blockage of the strait would severely hurt Beijing’s energy security. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highligted this point in an interview with Fox News: “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil.” He further warned, “If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them.”
Recent reports already suggest growing uncertainty in the region, with some oil supertankers reportedly reversing course in the wake of the U.S. strikes.
Over the weekend, Iran’s state broadcaster Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament had approved a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz. However, any final decision rests with the nation’s top leadership.
In a pointed response to the U.S. military action, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared that President Donald Trump’s decision “will have everlasting consequences.” Echoing this sentiment, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, denounced the airstrikes as a “grave mistake” and insisted that Israel “must be punished,” though he stopped short of directly referencing the strategic waterway.
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