, Israel launched its attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran in an operation dubbed ‘’Rising Lion’’, it intended to achieve two broad objectives; to decapitate Iran’s nuclear facilities and stop the country from progressing further on its nuclear development programme, and to trigger the process that will sweep the theocracy that had been in power in Iran since the revolution that overthrew the Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi from power in 1979.

The attack was carried out by squadrons of fighter planes of the Israeli Air Force (IAF), which included older generation F-16s and F-15s as well as the latest fifth-generation F-35, a cutting-edge multi-role stealth airframe reputed to be undetectable by radar and air defences. 

The Israeli Attack Plan

Basically, the Israeli attack plan was a hybrid of the 1967 surprise attacks carried out by the Israeli air force on Egyptian airfields, destroying Egyptian fighter jets on the ground, rendering what was left of the Egyptian air force ineffective in the 1967 war. 

The air strikes on Iran also incorporated elements of the 1982 IAF attack on the Iraqi nuclear site at Osirak, in which a component of the fighter planes was detailed to specifically attack and destroy the Osirak site, while another component was detailed to engage the Iraqi air force should they show up to disrupt the operation. 

The attack plan also featured some elements of the air component of the ‘’shock and awe’’ Gulf War against Iraq in which the allies blanketed the Iraqi air force and air defences in devastating electronic warfare.

In the Israeli attack plan on Iran, which was an upgrade of the three aforementioned air operations, the F-16s and F-15s were deployed in ground attack roles to destroy Iranian airfields, radar and air defences. They were also detailed to destroy Iranian fighter jets on the ground and to engage and destroy them if they took to the air.

The more sophisticated F-35 fighters with their stealth capabilities were tasked to destroy Iranian nuclear sites, which was the core element of the operation. 

The other component of the attack on Iran was the infiltration of Farsi-speaking special forces elements coordinated by the Israeli foreign intelligence service, the MOSSAD, to target and bomb the residences and command and control centres of the Iranian military command.

The Iranian Counterattack

It is now over a week into the operation, and while the IAF has achieved a lot in degrading the Iranian nuclear facilities and has inflicted considerable damage on the Iranian military and related assets, the goal of total destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities has still not been achieved. We are also yet to witness the beginning of mass protests calling for the overthrow of the Mullah theocracy of Iran, as envisaged by Israel and the United States of America. 

On the military side of things, while Israel and its western backers had expected Iran to be caught unawares by the initial attacks, on the contrary, from what we have been able to observe, however, Iran must have got wind of the impending attack and had prepared for it.  

But by the look of things, the Iranians had long lived with the expectation that the country’s nuclear infrastructure would be attacked by Israel and America. And the Iranians also knew that were such an attack to come, it would be in the form of massive air strikes involving scores of fighter jets.

It had long been part of Iranian military doctrine that, should the Israelis and Americans attack by air, the Iranian air force should not be scrambled to engage them. This is in the full knowledge that the old F-4 Phantoms in the Iranian inventory, deprived of spare parts under American sanctions, would prove to be no match for whatever the Israelis and Americans would deploy. In such a scenario, Iranian F-4 Phantoms coming up to engage the much more modern and equipped Israeli and American fighter jets will present an irresistible Turkey shoot opportunity for the Israelis and Americans. 

Another tactic the Iranians deployed was not to activate the air defences against the first wave of incoming Israeli fighter jets. This was a lesson the Iranians had learnt from the experiences of the Gulf War, when the Iraqis switched on their air defences as the first wave of squadrons of allied fighter jets approached the Iraqi airspace. This exposed the Iraqi air defence positions to allied radar, which proceeded to lock and jam them, making it easy for allied fighter jets to gain superiority over the Iraqi airspace.

From this experience, the Iranians knew that once the Israeli jets took off on the mission, the Iranian airspace would come under a blanket screen of electronic surveillance not only from the Israeli radar but also from the Americans and a dozen other countries in the region. Were the Iranians to activate their air defences in this scenario, this would almost certainly result in the Iranian airspace being blacked out. 

No, the Iranians did not take the bait on the first night of attack. If they had done so, they would not have been able to launch their response, which subsequently came within 24 hours of the Israeli attack. For long expecting such an attack from the Israelis, the Iranians had adopted it as doctrine to absorb the first blow no matter how hard, reserving their strength to deliver a devastating counter blow. The is akin to the famous ‘’rope-a-dope’’ defensive posture in the sport of boxing made so by the legendary Muhammad Ali against his opponents. 

It is what the Iranians have been doing in response to the Israeli attack that has captured the imagination of and got the world talking. The unending rain of drones and ballistic missiles, some with hypersonic features, from Iran has devastated Israeli targets with pinpoint accuracy, sending shock waves through the world with their impact. 

For the first time in its 77-year history, Israel has been rendered vulnerable and its reputation for invincibility has been shattered by the images of massive destruction of military, economic and civilian infrastructure all over the country. The images of Israelis running helter-skelter to huddle in air raid shelters as sirens wailed warnings of approaching Iranian missiles had captured the imagination of the world in many more ways than what the Israelis were doing to the Iranians. The Israeli claim of having a free rein of the Iranian airspace to launch sorties at Iranian targets may well be true, but the reality is that this has not deterred the Iranians from launching even more devastating strikes on critical Israeli infrastructure.  

The watching world has also witnessed that the much hyped ‘’Iron Dome’’ air defence shield, which was supposed to protect Israel from just what it is going through now, had to a large extent failed to do so as expected.

History repeating itself

In this regard, Israel has once again refused to learn from its history. Following victory in the 1967 war, the Israelis built the so-called Bar Lev Line (named after then IDF Chief of Staff Haim Bar Lev), a series of defensive fortifications along the length of the Suez Canal on the eastern bank of the Red Sea. This was to deter or delay any attempt by the Egyptians from retaking the Sinai Peninsula, which the Israelis had captured. 

But in the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Sappers of the Egyptian Army Engineers took down the Bar Lev Line in just a few hours, overrunning the Israeli Defence Forces. This paved the way for the Egyptians to achieve a spectacular amphibious crossing into the Sinai Peninsula, engaging the IDF in one of the greatest tank battles in history. 

Today, 52 years later, like the Bar Lev line, which could not prevent the Egyptians from breaching Israeli defences in 1973, the ‘’Iron Dome’’ has proven to be ineffective in deterring aerial threats in the ongoing Iran-Israel war in 2025.  

What’s next for Israel, Iran and the world?

(To be concluded)    

Iliyasu Gadu can be contacted via [email protected]

Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.