Prof Kabir Mato is a professor of political science who has held various political positions across the country. He spoke to our correspondent about the peculiarity of the present attempt by opposition political parties to form a coalition.

You’re aware of the present efforts by opposition political parties to form a coalition. Given your knowledge of such efforts in the past, what do you make of the current one?

Well, I think it’s one of the strategies that are open to political parties, mainly that are in opposition, you have to come together in order to wrest power from the party that is in government. This has happened in several countries across the world, especially in the third world nations of Africa. 

In Nigeria, particularly, it was a coalition that led to the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013-2014 that led to the defeat of the then very dominant ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015. So coalition by political parties, be it by way of agreeing to support common candidates under the platform of one of them or dissolving their identities into a new political formation, I think it’s a usual and regular thing to do, especially in the politics of the third world nations. We experienced such efforts even before the formation of the APC. 

In both the first and 2nd Republics, there were such coalitions by opposition political parties which did not see the light of day. It was only the APC that later got it right in 2015. Where is the current effort tilting to?

In my view, it is too early to call it. It’s too early to say what direction it will take, but I think that will depend on several factors, among which is the level of seriousness of those who are seeking to forge the alliance. Secondly, is the sincerity of purpose in terms of what the coalition intends to achieve. If the coalition is merely to satisfy the wishes and aspirations of the new political actors, it’s not likely going to see the light of day, but if the coalition sincerely believes that the party and government is not running the affairs of the country as it should, and out of patriotism and desire to rescue the nation from what they see as wrong political leadership, that may see the light of the day. 

Let me touch briefly on the coalition in the a1st Republic. The coalition in the 1st Republic between Action Group, NCNC, NEPU, and the rest of them that culminated into what was referred to as UPGA, that’s United Progressive Grand Alliance did not see the light of the day. Actually, it was also fractured along several peculiar factors characterizing African politics. For instance, you know, NEPU was part of that alliance, AG was part of the alliance, and NCNC was also part of the alliance, but the obvious stress of the regional politics that was the color of the day did not allow these alliances to take the meaningful position that would have given the necessary defeat to the ruling party.You know, the politics of the 1st Republic was different in the sense that it was regional politics, and that in each of the regions, the three major political parties were dominant and in control.

Now, this is different from also what happened in the 2nd Republic between 1979 and 1983. In the 2nd Republic, we can say with some degree of specificity that the coalition might not have failed as such, but given the fact that the regional political establishment and especially the ruling class had perfected an act of electoral malpractices, which led to the 1983 landslide victory of the NPN. It was not sufficient to really define if truly the alliance had taken place, because one could comfortably say that the election was not just flawed, but it was merely a design by the NPN government to simply rebuild the map of the state that it controlled in Nigeria such that even without the declaration of election results, announcements were made. 

You remember what happened then in Plateau State, the late Solomon Lar, who saw an imminent threat, an attempt by the ruling NPN to install the late John Khadiya as the governor of Plateau State, and he came out to announce his result.

Same was the case in Oyo State with the late Sam Mbakwe who also saw the possibilities of the NPN federal government attempting, by all means to defeat him.

So, the case in 1979 and 1983, in my view, was characterized by massive electoral fraud, and the horizon was not clear enough to see if the alliance failed. But in this case, like I did say earlier on, well, the success of the alliance and the coalition will to a great extent depend on the sincerity of purpose. Is this just about changing political power from one set of individuals to the other? Or is it because there is the genuine belief in the minds of the political actors that the government in power is not running the country the way it’s supposed to be run. And I think this is an important issue to consider. 

If you look at what happened to 2013 up to 2015, governors were a critical factor in the formation of the APC, which later succeeded in defeating the sitting president. Now, we don’t have governors in the coalition…

Let’s start by saying that the Nigerian electoral map, the Nigerian electoral system in general is transforming. What you had in 2023 wasn’t what actually happened in 2003, 2007, and even 2011. Nigerians are becoming increasingly more aware of their votes, their rights and the powers of their votes, and their ability to decide who their elected representatives are. 

This fact cannot be denied. This shows therefore that the electoral system  is improving. The level of maturity and political attainment and the electoral system is getting better by the days. 

You know, it is a work in progress. We are not there yet, and I don’t think if we are going to be there anytime soon. But from what we have seen from 2015, 2019, to 2023, there were clear indications that the electoral system has been improving. 

Coming back to the issue about the formation of APC and the role of the state government, what you are saying is absolutely true. But if we play that against the backdrop of what happened in 2023, then you will also understand that the role of the governments and all political officials in managing the outcome of electoral contest is increasingly diminishing in Nigerian politics. And that is the beauty of it, getting your elections right. It doesn’t matter whether you are a governor, a senator, a member of the House of Representatives, you know, whether you are the president. Once the election comes and people are allowed to express and exercise their franchise and their fundamental human rights, at the end of the day, their wishes and ambitions will be what will come to play.

In 2023 election, for instance, the APC had 23 states. They had five other governor of the opposition People’s Democratic Party that refused to join the candidate of the party but supported the APC candidate. 

The APC therefore went to election with 28 governors. Yet, at the end of that election, the winner was only able to win 12 states. Now, this is one indication to show you that the Nigeria’s political electoral system is gradually changing. 

So I’m not really worried about the number of representatives, the number of governors, the number of senators that are on one side. The election could be between those who are in positions of authority on one hand, and those who are voting on the other hand.

So it is not really true that these are the people that control the structures, right down to the grassroots…

If 2023 is anything to make reference to being a governor in the state does not mean that you have the total control of the voting pattern of the citizens in that state. In primary election, you can say so, because the governors determine who the delegates are. But once it is general election, ita different.

I tell you, with all sense of sincerity, that the Nigerian electoral system is gradually getting out of that scenario, where you talk about incumbency advantage, the power of governors, the power of senators, and so on.

Though you said the political system in Nigeria is evolving for the better, but the tendency by ruling to muzzle opposition has remained the same.

At a point, you recall that in 2003, the PDP was able to emasculate the entire southwestern state in this country, that became impossible for them to keep. But they took over all the other five western states, you know, and by 2007, the PDP had taken over almost two-thirds of the states of the federation, and they had almost two-thirds of, you know, control of the Senate and the House of Representatives of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. And you recall when the PDP was bragging all over the place that they will rule Nigeria for the next 100 years. 

A major problem that people see again within the coalition is given who will step down for the other as a presidential candidate between Atiku and Obi. What advice will you give them? 

Remember I told you that the successes of the coalition will be dependent primarily on the sincerity of the people. The coalition is likely to fail in the event that individual idiosyncrasies and aspirations are placed before the desire for attainment of national objectives.