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FPL promoted teams: Burnley's mean defence can provide value

Published 6 days ago8 minute read

Our series on the newly-promoted Premier League teams continues with this look at Burnley’s defence.

A profile of manager Scott Parker ran before this piece, with a review of the Burnley attackers to follow.

To get a fan’s perspective, we’ve included insights from Adam Dennett of the excellent No Nay Never podcast.


The stats in this piece are taken from WhoScored, Opta and FBref.


PWDLFAGDCSPTS
Total46281626916+5330100
Home231490358+271551
Away231472348+261549

Burnley’s promotion was largely thanks to their watertight defence. They conceded only 16 goals, the fewest ever in a 46-match season.

Setting up in a 4-2-3-1, that defensive solidity brought 30 clean sheets.

They didn’t concede more than one goal in any Championship game, either.

For context, here’s how those numbers stack up against the other newly-promoted sides in recent times.

TEAMS PROMOTED TO THE PREMIER LEAGUE SORTED BY FEWEST GOALS CONCEDED
Team (season promoted)Goals concededClean sheets
Leeds (2024/25)3025
Watford (2020/21)3023
Leeds (2019/20)3522
Burnley (2022/23)3521
Norwich (2020/21)3618
Bournemouth (2021/22)3921
Luton (2022/23)3920
Sheff Utd (2022/23)3919
Nott’m Forest (2021/22)4017
Leicester (2023/24)4115
Brentford (2020/21)4217
Fulham (2020/21)4317
Sunderland (2024/25)4417
West Brom (2019/20)4514
Fulham (2019/20)4817
Ipswich (2023/24)5715
Southampton (2023/24)6312

Smashing records left, right and centre, the defensive stability and consistency shown by Burnley last season was remarkable.

“There was an awful amount of work that’s gone in on the defensive side, not only just structurally and just coaching. There’s been a lot of mentality stuff that’s gone in and what we stand for as a group. If you look more deeper into the habits of this team, other than the clean sheets, you watch back through games, you’ll just see some clear habits that this group have: they defend their goal like their life depends on it.

“That’s been numerous, numerous meetings and a togetherness. This is probably the closest squad I’ve been around. Large parts of that are that we defend our goal and it gives us a platform.

“I get it isn’t the most exciting, certainly from the outside maybe, but there’s an art to it. There’s a lot of work and there’s a lot of determination and commitment from this group of boys that, fair play to them, they’re doing really well to give us that real foundation. Our foundation is built, at this present moment in time, on cement. It’s not built on sand.” – Scott Parker

Still, it’s important to recognise that defensive strength in the Championship doesn’t often translate into Premier League clean sheets.

The significant overperformance in expected goals conceded (xGC) during the 2024/25 season raises potential concerns, too.

24/25 total (rank v other Championship clubs)
Goals conceded16 (1st)
Clean sheets30 (1st)
Expected goals conceded (xGC)39.1 (2nd)
Shots per game conceded9.4 (2nd)
Possession56.8 (4th)

But what Burnley did do very well was protect their goalkeeper, .

Indeed, the non-penalty expected goals (xG) value of the average shot they faced last season was just 0.09. That was the joint-lowest rate of any team in the Championship.

“We’ll find out just how good they are defensively in a couple of months, but after watching Dycheball for nearly a decade, us Clarets fans know a good defensive shape when we see one, and last year was glorious from that perspective. The defensive organisation was top class with the flat back four and two sitting midfielders (Cullen/Laurent), but the hard work started from the front, Flemming, Hannibal, Brownhill and Anthony pressing at the top end of the pitch. You could see the fight all over the pitch to win the ball. If the opposition did manage to break through the lines, invariably Esteve was there to sweep up with ease to get us out of trouble and Trafford was faultless through the season.” – Adam Dennett


PlayerPrimary position 24/25Starts (sub apps)GoalsAssists
Maxime EsteveCB4610
James TraffordGK4500
CJ Egan-Riley*CB40 (1)11
Connor RobertsRB40 (1)23
Lucas PiresLB32 (2)02
Bashir HumphreysLB20 (5)12
Joe WorrallCB3 (6)01
Dara O’Shea*CB210
John Egan*CB1 (6)00
Vaclav HladkyGK100

*No longer at the club

Firstly, it’s important to note that Burnley’s defenders didn’t contribute much in attack last season. Right-back led the way with a modest tally of two goals and three assists across 41 matches.

They’ve also been handed a tricky start, with clashes against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Aston Villa in the first seven Gameweeks.

As a result, you’d probably want to pair a Burnley goalkeeper/defender with a £4.5m option from Everton or Tottenham, if one exists, of course, who can be used as a part of a rotation pairing.

Goalkeeper Trafford and centre-backs and were all named in the Championship Team of the Season.

Trafford, however, has been heavily linked with a move away. Egan-Riley is also no longer at the club, leaving Esteve as the current standout option.

“Sadly, CJ Egan-Riley has already departed on a free for Champions League football in Marseille. Parker favours teams that dominate possession, building attacks through passing and switching play, which makes replacing Egan-Riley more difficult this summer, his range of passing from centre-back was key last season. James Trafford is heavily linked with Newcastle following their long-term interest, too.

“You’d think that Scott Parker will try to replicate the solid base that was the pillar of Burnley’s success last year, and three of the first four home fixtures are decent enough (Sunderland/Nottingham Forest/Leeds United) to consider a £4.5m goalkeeper/defender as a decent option, but only if you can rotate with cheap defenders from other teams over the opening part of the season. Defenders didn’t show much in attack last year with Connor Roberts the biggest contributor. The rumoured addition of Quilindschy Hartman may be the best bet, but Maxime Esteve will be the most nailed for minutes and was a class above in the Championship.” – Adam Dennett

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Esteve started every Championship match for Burnley last season, and spent much of the January transfer window being linked to Everton, Tottenham, West Ham United and AC Milan.

The left-footed centre-half carries very little goal threat or assist potential, having registered only seven shots and two key passes in 2024/25. He is nailed-on to start, at least.

He is likely to excel in defensive metrics such as clearances and blocks, too.

A classy operator who possesses impressive recovery speed and a decent pass, Esteve would probably need to be priced up at £4.0m to come under consideration for our opening squads.

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Trafford’s excellent displays in goal were central to Burnley’s defensive resoluteness last season.

The 6ft 6in ‘keeper racked up 29 clean sheets in total, including 12 consecutive shut-outs between December and March.

He also saved both penalties he faced.

According to Opta, Trafford had the highest save percentage in the Championship (84.6%). He also boasted the second-highest goals prevented tally, with 12.5.

His stock is high for a reason, then, so the Clarets will be eager to repel summer interest.

Trafford will likely be priced up at £4.5m in FPL next season (if he stays) and his appeal will largely be dictated by who else is available at that rung.

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Connor Roberts played the majority of last season as Burnley’s first-choice right-back, often inverting into central midfield.

Above: Connor Roberts’ touch heatmap in 2024/25, via SofaScore

A total of 26 shots and 28 key passes in over 3,600 minutes of second-tier football was an okay-ish output, but didn’t challenge the top 20 Championship defenders in either metric.

A wing-back role would help boost his appeal, mind, though Parker may strengthen in this area over the summer.

“Many Burnley fans think we’ll switch to a 3-4-2-1 with wing backs in some PL games. This worked well in our FA Cup win at Southampton last season and should make us even more difficult to break down against better opposition.” – Adam Dennett

The left-back berth was occupied by both and Bashir Humphreys, despite the latter predominantly being a centre-back.

Brazilian Pires was signed from Santos last summer, took some corners and produced a key pass every 77.8 minutes, the fastest rate of any Burnley defender, while Humphreys arrived on loan from Chelsea and has since signed a permanent deal.

Pires started the last 13 Championship matches, but Humphries was injured throughout that time, so there is a bit of uncertainty in this position right now, particularly with Dutch left-back Quilindschy Hartman linked.

The other options, such as Joe Worrall and Vaclav Hladky, provided back-up.


Our thanks again go to Adam for his valuable insight, more of which will be featured in the next article.


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