As Nigeria inches towards the 2027 general elec­tions, the All Progres­sives Congress (APC) faces a defining question: Can it pull off another presidential victory, using the same strategy that worked—controversially—in 2023?

The Muslim-Muslim ticket of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shetti­ma sparked fierce national debate.

While it secured victory, it also raised critical concerns about na­tional unity, religious representa­tion, and political inclusivity. Now, as political permutations begin to take shape, many are wondering if the same formula can work a second time.

The decision by the APC to field a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 was, to many, a political gamble that defied Nigeria’s unwritten power-sharing principle.

Since the return to democra­cy in 1999, religious and regional balancing has been an essential feature of presidential tickets. The Tinubu-Shettima pairing shattered that precedent.

While the APC justified its choice on the grounds of politi­cal pragmatism and competence, critics saw it as insensitive to Ni­geria’s religious diversity. Yet, the ticket managed to win—though with just 37% of the votes, amid record low-voter-turnout.

“I believe the APC underesti­mated the symbolic damage,” said Dr. Yemi Farouk, a political scien­tist at the University of Ibadan. “Yes, they won, but at what cost?

The victory was narrow, and the le­gitimacy was questioned by many.”

Inside the APC, opinions on whether to repeat the Muslim-Mus­lim formula are deeply divided.

While some party strategists ar­gue that it delivered the North-South alliance needed to win, others fear the party may not survive another cycle of religious controversy.

Governor Nasir Idris of Kebbi State, a staunch Tinubu supporter, downplayed the issue.

“Religion has never put food on the table. Nigerians voted for track records, not turbans or cassocks,” he told Sunday Independent in a recent interview.

However, another APC chieftain from the South-East, speaking anon­ymously, warned: “We were lucky in 2023. Nigerians gave us the benefit of the doubt. But the resentment from the Christian community, especially in the North-Central and South-East, was real. To do it again might be po­litical suicide.”

Interestingly, some Muslim groups that supported the 2023 ticket now express disappointment in the Tinubu administration’s religious inclusiveness—or perceived lack thereof.

The Supreme Council for Shari’ah in Nigeria (SCSN), one of the more vocal Islamic groups during the cam­paign, has recently criticized the ad­ministration for sidelining Northern Muslims in key policy matters.

Speaking to Sunday Independent, Sheikh AbdurRasheed Hadiyyat­ullah, the Council’s president, re­marked: “We supported the ticket because we believed it would balance competence with Islamic values.

 “One year later, we are not seeing significant gains for our communities, especially in the North-West. It’s a real­ity check.”

This growing discontent among some Northern Is­lamic blocs could create fractures within the APC’s traditional base—fractures that could widen if the par­ty insists on repeating the same religious ticket.

The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), which had openly criticized the Mus­lim-Muslim ticket in 2023, re­mains vehemently opposed to any such recurrence.

Reverend John Hayab, a CAN representative in Kadu­na, told Sunday Independent: “The 2023 election was a be­trayal of our national values.

“We watched as a major political party ignored mil­lions of Christian voters. It may have worked once, but I assure you, it will not work again.”

Echoing this sentiment is Primate Elijah Ayodele, the leader of INRI Evan­gelical Spiritual Church, a Lagos-based cleric known for his outspoken political prophecies.

“God is not in support of this ticket,” he said in a vi­ral sermon earlier this year. “If they attempt it again, the backlash will be worse.”

Yakubu Dogara, former Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives, labeled the ticket as “satanic” and warned it could lead to national disintegration.

Many political analysts argue that the 2023 win had less to do with religious com­position and more with op­position fragmentation and APC’s electoral machinery.

With PDP’s Atiku Abuba­kar and Labour Party’s Pe­ter Obi splitting the votes— especially in the North and South-East respectively—the APC was able to capitalize on its strongholds in the South- West and North-West.

Amaka Anku, Africa director at Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg shortly after the election: “Tinubu’s win was as much about voter suppression and mobiliza­tion strategy as it was about fragmentation of the oppo­sition. Repeating that under the same socio-political cir­cumstances in 2027 would be a stretch.”

The implication is clear: what worked once under pe­culiar electoral circumstanc­es might not work again—es­pecially if opposition parties unite or voter awareness in­creases.

To understand public sen­timent, Sunday Independent conducted a street poll across five major cities—Lagos, Abuja, Kaduna, Enugu, and Kano. The results revealed sharp regional divides.

In Lagos, a 32-year-old IT professional, Tobi Awoniyi, said: “I don’t care if they’re both Muslims or Christians. Nigeria is in a mess. We need capable hands.”

In Enugu, Chinwe Obasi, a schoolteacher, felt different­ly: “We are a diverse nation. Why should anyone exclude Christians from the presi­dency? That’s not unity.”

Interestingly, many re­spondents in Kano expressed indifference to religious pair­ing but emphasized perfor­mance.

“If Tinubu and Shettima fix the economy, I’ll vote for them again,” said Aminu Musa, a textile trader.

Vice President Shettima has increasingly become a political force of his own. Known for his eloquence and firm grip on policy issues, he is being quietly positioned as a possible successor in 2031—another factor that might influence the APC’s 2027 strategy.

In a closed-door session with APC stakeholders in March, sources told Sunday Independent that Shettima pushed for “a ticket that re­flects national character, not just electoral mathematics.”

His statement is seen as a subtle warning against re­peating the Muslim-Muslim structure.

At the recent APC summit held at Aso Villa Banquet Hall, the choice of a Mus­lim-Muslim ticket was top on the underground discussions among the heavy weights in the gathering.

 Though President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was unani­mously endorsed for a second term, the party big wigs are silent on the choice of Mus­lim-Muslim ticket in 2027.

President Tinubu has maintained silence on the matter. However, insiders suggest that his priority is economic reform and secu­rity for now—not succession politics.

Dr. Bamidele Ogunleye, a policy analyst, believes Tinu­bu will eventually face a mor­al and strategic dilemma.

“He must decide if he wants to be remembered as the man who shattered the religious balancing frame­work permanently or the leader who built bridges.”

Indeed, if Tinubu hopes to leave a lasting legacy, many believe he must work to­ward restoring trust among diverse ethnic and religious blocs.

The PDP and Labour Par­ty may find in the APC’s reli­gious insensitivity a unifying theme for 2027.

Already, whispers of a pos­sible Atiku-Obi coalition are floating in political circles even though Obi has dis­missed such possibility, say­ing he would rather prefer staying in LP and contesting against.

However, analysts believe such an alliance, if carefully negotiated, could command a broad religious and regional appeal.

“If they [APC] go Mus­lim-Muslim again, we’ll go Christian-Muslim and let Nigerians decide,” said Dr. Ahmed Waziri, a PDP strat­egist. “We’re watching their next move.”

As 2027 looms, the deci­sion before the APC is not merely a political one—it’s symbolic. Will the ruling party repeat a controversial religious ticket, banking on electoral numbers and in­cumbency power? Or will it adapt to growing demands for inclusivity and unity?

The stakes are high, and for a country as deeply reli­gious—and deeply divided— as Nigeria, the symbolism of its leaders matters almost as much as their policies.