Bosra al-Sham has entered a period of intense security lockdown, precipitated by the attempted arrest and near-assassination of Billel al-Droubi, a former commander who defected from the Eighth Brigade to join the Syrian Ministry of Defense. The situation underscores how Ahmed al-Awda, commander of the Eighth Brigade (previously affiliated with Russia’s Fifth Corps), remains a critical figure in this area. AlAwda continues to reject full integration into the new Syrian army under President Ahmad al-Sharaa. These tensions illuminate deeper post-Assad power struggles in Daraa, and external actors, most notably Russia and Israel, are monitoring developments that may influence the regional balance. To better understand these dynamics, the SARI Global quantitative STAKE Framework (Stakeholder Threat Assessment and Knowledge Evaluation) is used here to identify how stakeholders are shaping the next phase of the conflict in Bosra al-Sham.