As the 2026 gubernatorial election approaches in Ekiti State, political analysts and observers are closely watching whether the incumbent governor, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO), can break the long-standing jinx of self-succession in the state.

Since the return of democracy in 1999, no Ekiti governor has secured re-election for a second consecutive term. While both Ayodele Fayose of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Kayode Fayemi of the All Progressives Congress (APC) served two terms, neither did so back-to-back. Fayose was re-elected years after his impeachment in 2006, while Fayemi returned to office in 2018 after losing as an incumbent four years earlier.

With this historical backdrop, the question dominating political discussions in Ekiti is whether BAO can rewrite history and become the first governor to be re-elected consecutively.

At the moment, the political terrain appears favourable for Oyebanji. He enjoys broad support across party lines, including from past governors and notable politicians. One of his former opponents in the 2022 election, Chief Segun Oni, who contested under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has publicly commended Oyebanji’s leadership. At 70, Oni seems to have taken a step back from active politics, further consolidating BAO’s position.

Additionally, BAO has struck a balance between grassroots engagement and elite governance. He has combined the populist approach of former Governor Fayose with the technocratic style of his immediate predecessor, Fayemi. This has endeared him to a wide spectrum of voters. His administration’s prompt payment of salaries and pensions—along with the clearing of salary arrears inherited from past administrations—has won him the loyalty of civil servants. His approval of a ₦70,000 minimum wage in December 2024 led to a “Thank You” visit from a large section of the state’s workforce.

Beyond workers’ welfare, Oyebanji’s infrastructural drive is evident across the state. The construction of Ekiti’s second overhead bridge, the near-completion of the Ekiti State International Cargo Airport along Ijan Road, and the rehabilitation of major roads have been widely applauded. Even his political opponents acknowledge these achievements.

Politically, Oyebanji has been strategic in consolidating his influence. He has built relationships with grassroots leaders and power brokers, ensuring that potential threats to his re-election bid are neutralized. His ability to maintain party cohesion, reward loyalists, and extend political patronage has strengthened his support base.

Recently, key figures in the Ekiti Central Senatorial District—including Senator Michael Opeyemi Bamidele—publicly endorsed him for a second term. Various interest groups within the state have also thrown their weight behind his re-election bid.

Another factor that may work in BAO’s favour is federal backing. With the APC in control at the national level under President Bola Tinubu, Oyebanji is well-positioned to leverage the power of incumbency and federal influence to his advantage.

Moreover, the main opposition party, the PDP, is in disarray. Internal conflicts and a lack of strong leadership have rendered it ineffective in holding the government accountable. Without a formidable opposition, the APC appears poised to retain power in 2026.

Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji stands a strong chance of breaking Ekiti’s self-succession jinx. His popularity, infrastructural achievements, workers’ support, strategic political alliances, and the weakness of the opposition all tilt the odds in his favour. However, the unpredictability of Ekiti’s political history means he cannot afford complacency. As the 2026 election draws closer, all eyes will be on the Land of Honour to see if BAO can make history.

Peter Omoniyi Gidado, a postgraduate student of journalism, writes from Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State. He can be reached via [email protected].