Desperate 76ers could shock fans expecting Ace Bailey with No. 3 pick
The Philadelphia 76ers were big winners in the NBA Draft Lottery, moving up from No. 5 to No. 3 and retaining their top-six protected pick, which would have otherwise gone to the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder in a cruel twist of fate. After a disastrous, injury-plagued season, Philly really needed some good luck.
Now comes the hard part for Daryl Morey and the front office. Philadelphia has arrived at a crossroads, equipped with three max contract stars in Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, but limited in terms of roster flexibility. Another losing season — or even an early postseason exit — might mean the end of the road for the current Sixers brass.
That could influence their NBA Draft plans, as Sam Vecenie of The Athletic lays out.
"It’s expected that the Sixers will listen to offers for No. 3, but it’s unclear whom the team would take if it stays," he writes. "Rutgers’ (Ace) Bailey has been seen as the biggest upside swing, and he fills a theoretical position of need for Philly as a big wing. But he is also viewed as more of a project by scouts and executives, and this is a Sixers front office that likely needs to win next year to keep its jobs. I’ve also gotten a wider sense of appreciation from NBA front offices for (VJ) Edgecombe than Bailey."
Not only does Vecenie float the possibility of a star trade for the Sixers, but he notes that Morey is probably keen on keeping his job. Another disappointing season could lead to massive organizational changes, meaning Morey has motivation to not only nail the pick, but to add an immediate contributor to a team with faint NBA title hopes.
Vecenie points to Baylor's VJ Edgecombe and Duke's Kon Knueppel as "more likely" picks than Bailey at No. 3, noting that Morey "typically care(s) about how players perform in pre-draft analytics models." Bailey, for all his immense talent, boasts a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and relied heavily on an inefficient, isolation shot diet, which means he performs well below his peers on the analytics front.
Now, very little is set in stone, as Morey is also known to take huge swings on talent, and Bailey's upside is well documented. The Sixers' president has said consistently that he will take the best player available, regardless of fit. So while Edgecome and Knueppel align better as immediate contributors, there's still a chance we see Philadelphia roll the dice on Bailey's unique blend of size, athleticism and shot-making.
That said, Edgecombe and Knueppel are more logical picks when taking the entire Sixers roster into consideration. Edgecombe is an elite perimeter defender, a knockdown spot-up shooter and a 100th percentile athlete, which opens up a world of possibility as his handle evolves. Knueppel is a wing with size, elite movement shooting, and a crazy high feel for the game. He can fit in and contribute at a high level out of the gate.
We also cannot discount the chances of a trade back, as there's reason to believe Philadelphia could target Knueppel in the 5-6 range, should either Utah or Washington fancy a bold move up after their lottery misfortune. A lot of options are on the table, ranging from a go-for-broke Giannis trade to a simple contact-swing for Knueppel in the No. 3 slot. Buckle in, 76ers fans — just don't get too attached to a single prospect, and especially not Ace Bailey.