A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 28, 2023, shows missiles being launched during a military drill in the Isfahan province in central Iran. FILE Photo | AFP

Israel and the US are drawing West Asia closer to another prolonged conflict, after fresh American air strikes on Iran intensified an already volatile regional crisis.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced that the military had carried out air strikes targeting Iran's main nuclear enrichment facilities -- Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan -- and warned of more attacks to come if Tehran chooses to retaliate.

The fresh US military entanglement comes despite Trump’s promises to avoid another "forever war" in the Middle East, while Iran has vowed to retaliate against US forces in the region if Washington gets involved.

Tehran’s potential retaliation, likely to involve both direct and proxy attacks through the Axis of Resistance, could include attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz and target US military bases across the Middle East.

Here are the flashpoints to watch.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor between Iran and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, carrying more than 20% of global daily oil supplies. Only around 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, the strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

In 2024, nearly 20 million barrels of oil passed through it each day, though that number has remained flat in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Western sanctions and pressure. At one point, Tehran warned it could deploy up to 6,000 naval mines in the waterway -- a tactic aimed at trapping US warships inside the Persian Gulf. With limited alternative routes for oil shipments, any disruption to this strategic chokepoint could send shockwaves through global energy and trade markets.

Notably, the Strait of Hormuz has long been a flashpoint in regional tensions, with cargo vessels repeatedly targeted during conflicts.

During the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), both countries targeted commercial shipping in what became known as the "Tanker War" -- a chapter Tehran may revisit in shaping its response this time.

Iraq began striking vessels supplying Iran, later expanding attacks to oil exports. Iran retaliated by targeting ships linked to Iraq’s allies and creditors. The campaign became the most sustained assault on merchant shipping since World War II, killing hundreds of civilian seafarers, damaging numerous vessels, and causing major economic disruption. The broader risk lay in its threat to global oil supply, as the conflict jeopardised free navigation through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.

The United States has maintained a wide military footprint across the Middle East and North Africa for decades, operating as many as 19 military facilities across the region.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which cites US defence officials, around 40,000 American service members are currently deployed across the Middle East as of June 2025. A significant number of them are stationed on naval vessels patrolling regional waters.

The 19 military facilities, including eight permanent bases, are spread across Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, the US military operates bases in Djibouti and Turkey. Though part of other regional commands, both often play key roles in American operations in the Middle East.

Several of these bases may be under threat if Iran follows through on its warning to retaliate against US interests in the region.

The, located in the desert outside Doha, is the largest American military installation in the region and serves as the forward headquarters of US Central Command (CENTCOM). Operational since 2009, the base hosts around 10,000 troops and plays a critical role in US operations across the region.

The in Manama serves as the headquarters for US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. Operational since 1997, the base is home to around 9,000 troops and plays a key role in securing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

In western Iraq, the has been a major US facility since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nearly 2,500 troops are stationed there. The base has been targeted by Iranian missile strikes in the past -- including in 2020, following the US assassination of Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani -- and more recently by Iran-backed militias in response to US support for Israel during the 2023 Gaza war. It was also hit earlier this week by suspected Shiite proxy forces.

In Erbil, has also been under US control since the 2003 invasion and has been used to support Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Like Al-Asad, it has come under attack from groups aligned with Tehran in the wake of the Gaza conflict.

Kuwait plays a critical role in the US military’s regional posture. Around 13,500 US troops are spread across five bases in the country, which has historically served as a launchpad for operations, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The, located southeast of Kuwait City, is a major logistics and command centre and houses the forward headquarters for the US Army component of CENTCOM.

The , situated around 37 km from the Iraqi border, is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing of the US Air Force. The base supports aerial logistics and operations across the region.

The located 32km south of Abu Dhabi,has been in operation since 2002 and is a hub for reconnaissance and combat missions. The base hosts about 3,500 US personnel and advanced aircraft, including F-22 Raptors, surveillance drones, and AWACS planes. The 380th Air Expeditionary Wing is based here and has supported operations against ISIS, Houthi forces, and missions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Meanwhile, the US Navy presence in the region is equally significant and could be at the heart of any conflict with Iran.

The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is currently deployed in the Arabian Sea along with four warships in its strike group, positioned to provide cover for US assets around the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

The USS Nimitz, scheduled to relieve the Carl Vinson, is making its way from the Indo-Pacific and is expected to arrive by the end of the month. The Navy has also deployed the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner from the Western Mediterranean as a precautionary measure.

The USS Gerald R. Ford is set to enter the European command theatre next week. While its deployment is not directly tied to the conflict, its presence would offer the White House the option of a third carrier group in the region if needed.

Additional US destroyers are stationed in the Red Sea and the Western Mediterranean, providing maritime security and strategic depth as tensions rise.

Iran's Axis of Resistance -- a network of militant groups including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis among others -- may be weakened, but it’s far from defanged.

Israel’s war in Gaza has significantly reduced the strength of both , while a series of Israeli strikes last year is believed to have killed key leaders and caused widespread damage in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, long considered Iran’s most powerful proxy, may now be in no position to play a major role in a broader conflict following these setbacks.

But Iran retains other options.

The Houthis in Yemen, who previously threatened to resume attacks in the Red Sea if the United States entered the conflict, continue to pose a threat with their missile and drone capabilities.

Iran also maintains links with allied Shiite militias in Iraq, several of which have targeted US forces in the region.

However, Tehran could also look further afield by orchestrating overseas attacks, a tactic it has used in the past. Such operations are part of what Iran sees as asymmetric warfare -- a form of conflict between unequal powers that falls short of full-scale conventional war.

This approach is central to Tehran’s "forward deterrence" strategy, shaped by decades of regional conflict, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating in 2019 that Iran "must not limit" itself to its borders but should “recognise and confront threats” beyond its walls.

The doctrine dates back to the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and gained ground during the Iran–Iraq war of the 1980s. At the time, Iran developed and supported proxies such as the Badr Corps to fight Saddam Hussein’s forces, and it continues to back that group today.

In the years since, Iran has expanded this model, cultivating non-state actors ranging from armed groups to criminal networks, using them to target rivals including the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Most of these activities are coordinated by the Quds Force, the foreign operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), established in 1988.

However, recent Israeli strikes are believed to have degraded parts of Iran’s conventional military infrastructure and may have killed senior IRGC figures, including its chief Gen. Hossein Salami. One such strike allegedly hit a Quds Force command centre in Tehran -- though it remains unclear whether its current commander Esmail Qaani survived the attack.

Meanwhile, the Gaza conflict has significantly limited the ability of both Hezbollah and Hamas to respond to fresh escalations. Yet Iran’s broader capacity for asymmetric retaliation remains intact.

The Quds Force, despite being covert by design, is thought to be deeply embedded across the region. With its established bureaucracy and chain of command, the unit likely has contingency plans in place. Its infrastructure, from strategic directives to field operatives, is expected to remain active and capable of launching future operations.