Former Texas Democratic Rep. Colin Allred formally launched his 2026 U.S. Senate campaign Tuesday morning, entering what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races of the cycle.

A former NFL linebacker, Allred represented the Dallas area in the House for three terms before mounting an unsuccessful challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024.

So far, much of the early attention in the Texas race has centered on the increasingly bitter Republican primary, where Attorney General Ken Paxton — a staunch ally of President Trump — is challenging longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn.

The 2026 race is emerging as a key target for national Democrats hoping to expand their Senate map under the new Trump administration. 

Democrats have long seen Texas as tantalizing but elusive political ground. Cruz's 2018 and 2024 re-election campaigns ranked among the most expensive Senate contests in the country, with each race drawing more than $100 million in contributions. Cruz ultimately edged out former Rep. Beto O'Rourke by 2.6 points in 2018 and defeated Allred by 8.5 points in 2024.

Cornyn, by contrast, has enjoyed more comfortable margins. He defeated Democrat MJ Hegar by 9.6 points in 2020 and won re-election in 2014 by a commanding 27.2-point spread over Democrat David Alameel.

Still, some Texas Democrats see signs of momentum and believe the political environment in 2026 could finally break their way — especially if Paxton, who is leading in early primary polls, manages to unseat Cornyn. Cornyn has tried to capitalize on the risk, warning that a Paxton nomination "would be catastrophic."

Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on bribery allegations but was acquitted by the state Senate. He was also previously under federal investigation for corruption, though the Justice Department declined to pursue charges near the end of the Biden administration.

In his campaign launch video, Allred took aim at both of his potential Republican opponents.

"I'm announcing my candidacy for the United States Senate to lower costs and stop corrupt politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton from rigging the economy against hard-working Texans," he says.

The Democratic field could become crowded. O'Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio — an outspoken critic of the Trump administration's immigration policies — are both  considering bids. Retired astronaut Terry Virts officially entered the race last week, and other potential contenders include progressive state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star on social media with nearly 900,000 TikTok followers.

Still, the road for Democrats remains challenging. The party hasn't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, hasn't elected anyone to the U.S. Senate from Texas since 1988 and last carried the state in a presidential election in 1976.

Democratic hopes have largely rested on the continued erosion of GOP margins in the suburbs around Dallas and Houston. While that suburban trend has persisted since 2018, Republicans have made gains elsewhere — particularly in the historically Democratic-leaning Rio Grande Valley, where Hispanic voters have shifted rightward in recent cycles.

Democrats are aiming to retake control of Congress in 2026, and while the House appears within reach, the Senate map is a tough climb. The party is defending key seats in swing states like Georgia and Michigan and will need to expand the map in red or purple territory to have a shot at the majority.

Beyond Texas, Democrats are also eyeing a potential opening in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins has not confirmed her re-election plans. And in North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis' stunning decision not to seek another term will likely make the race even more competitive in the Tar Heel State, a persistent battleground.

Caroline Linton and Joe Walsh contributed to this report.