China’s long-held strategy of “regime-agnostic” engagement in Africa is under strain as mounting instability in Niger threatens billions in Chinese investments, says a new study.

A new report by the Washington-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies warns that China’s transactional diplomacy — prioritizing control over constitutional legitimacy — has left its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) vulnerable in fragile environments. Beijing’s pivot to support Niger’s junta, which seized power in 2023, has already yielded setbacks. In 2025, the military regime expelled Chinese oil executives, revoked licenses, and imposed demands on CNPC, the Chinese oil giant, operating the $5 billion Agadem-Sèmè oil pipeline. The junta also suspended work permits and demanded increased local control, acting without legal arbitration.

Violence has surged under the junta, with fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups expected to triple from 2022 levels. Attacks on the Chinese-backed oil pipeline have halted operations and sparked fears for Chinese personnel. Rebel groups have publicly urged China to withdraw support for the junta. Despite these dangers, China extended a $400 million bailout to the military regime, defying African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctions. At the same time, Beijing has deepened arms sales and infrastructure deals across Mali and Burkina Faso.

Experts caution that investments lacking rule-of-law safeguards face enduring risks. “Non-interference” has, in practice, become a regime-first policy. Without institutional stability, China’s financial and reputational stakes in the Sahel remain precarious.