but seen down from the current 58%.
OMFIF survey respondents expected the euro to reach about a 22% share of global reserves in 10 years' time.
"The euro's share of global reserves will almost surely rise over the next few years, not so much because Europe is viewed so much more favorably, but because the dollar's status is diminished," said Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist, told Reuters by e-mail ahead of OMFIF's publication.
But Europe could attract a higher share of reserves sooner if the bloc is able to boost its pile of bonds that are currently dwarfed by the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, while integrating its capital markets, the sources that speak directly to reserve managers, told Reuters. ECB President Christine Lagarde has also urged action to bolster the euro as a viable dollar alternative.
The euro is the "only real alternative currency for the moment to make a significant change in the level of reserves," said Bernard Altschuler, global head of central bank coverage at HSBC, adding he saw it as "realistic" for the euro to reach a 25% share of global reserves in 2-3 years if those issues are addressed.
The European Union is the world's largest trading bloc. Its economy is far bigger than the dollar's other rivals. Capital controls limit the appeal of the yuan.
Momentum for change has gathered pace, with Europe signalling willingness to curb its dependence on the U.S. by boosting defence spending, including through more joint EU borrowing. Germany is ramping up spending, while the EU is trying to revive efforts to integrate its capital markets.
Public pension and sovereign wealth funds, also surveyed by OMFIF, saw Germany as the most attractive developed market.
UBS Asset Management's Castelli said he was receiving many more questions about the euro, estimating the euro could recover to a 25% share of reserves by the end of the 2020s.
At the most bullish end, Francesco Papadia, who managed the ECB's market operations during the debt crisis, estimated the euro could recover to 25% in as soon as two years.
Reserve managers he holds discussions with were more willing to look at the euro than before, Papadia, senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel, said. Zhou Xiaochuan, China's central bank chief from 2002 to 2018, agreed the euro's role as a reserve currency could grow. However, there's "homework to do," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a recent conference.
