Canada’s governing Liberal Party has won national elections dominated by United States President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, a career economist and banker who cast himself as a champion for Canada in the face of Trump’s threats, led the Liberals to a fourth consecutive term on Monday, a stunning turnaround for a party that until recently was on track for a crushing defeat at the hands of the Conservative Party.

Carney, who had never held office before taking the top job in March, cast the outcome as an opportunity to “stand up for Canada” and “build Canada strong”.

“The coming days and months will be challenging and they will call for some sacrifices but we will share those sacrifices by supporting our workers and our businesses,” Carney said in a victory speech in which he called on Canadians to never forget the lessons of the “American betrayal”.

Although Carney’s Liberals won the most seats in the 343-member House of Commons, it is unclear if he will be able to form a majority government or need to rely on the support of a smaller party.

With the votes still being counted late on Monday, the Liberals were on course to win at least 165 seats, with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on track to take at least 147, according to projections by national broadcaster CBC.

The Liberals last won a parliamentary majority in 2015 and had relied on the support of the left-leaning New Democratic Party to pass legislation after narrowly winning the 2021 election with 160 seats.

The election result marks a stunning turnaround for the centre-left party, which trailed the Conservatives by more than 20 points in polls as recently as January.

While Poilievre, 45, had hoped to capitalise on the widespread unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom voters blamed for rising living costs and record levels of immigration, Trump’s return to the White House prompted a surge in patriotic sentiment in Canada and galvanised voters around the incumbent party.

After leading the race for more than two years, the Conservatives’ advantage quickly evaporated when Carney replaced Trudeau as the person tasked with navigating the escalating tensions between Ottawa and Washington.

By the time election day came around, the Liberals were polling as clear favourites.

“We will always put Canada first,” Poilievre said in a concession speech to supporters, adding that his party would work with the government on the “common goal of defending Canada’s interests” and “getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty”.

While on the campaign trail, Carney, who formerly led the central banks of Canada and the United Kingdom, touted his financial experience and pushed back aggressively on Trump’s trade salvoes and threats to turn Canada into the 51st US state.

“Our old relationship with the United States is over, unfortunately,” Carney said in a final pitch to voters on Sunday.

“And America’s leadership of the global economy is over. And this, this is a tragedy. This is still in play. But it is a tragedy. It is also our new reality. We have to recognise it.”

“We will fight,” Carney added.

“We will fight Trump’s counter-tariffs. In fact, we are already we’re fighting them with our own counter-tariffs that cause maximum damage in the United States with minimum impact here in Canada.”

As Canadians went to the polls on Monday, Trump returned to his talking point about Canada becoming a US state.

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago.”

Nearly 29 million Canadians were eligible to vote in the election, with a record 7.3 million voters casting ballots in advance of the poll.