There are small, crazy companies everywhere trying to emulate MicroStrategy’s bitcoin treasury model. Why not? It appears to be free money. Apparently, there are people in the world willing to give you their dollars – as long as you promise to spend it on stashing bitcoin. What’s more, they’ll even pay a huge premium for you to do so. But what sort of people would actually agree to that? And when it all comes unglued, will it make sense? How is it not a good trade to buy bitcoin and short these companies?

If this bitcoin treasury trend isn’t the final signal that the current rally is coming to an end, I don’t know what is. Buying shares of a company just because it holds bitcoin may be a substitute for an ETF – if you can’t manage self-custody or trust an exchange – but paying a huge premium makes no sense. Well, it can make sense, but not in a good way.

Two days ago, bitcoin dumped below $100,000 to under $99,000,before rallying back again.

Two days ago, bitcoin briefly dumped below $100,000 to under $99,000, before rallying back again.

This fits my model: geopolitical events shake markets – BTC is for flight, gold is for conflict, and once the dust settles, real assets make a move. If you look at recent Middle East flashpoints, you can see them reflected in the prices of BTC, gold, and oil before the events even unfold. So it’s better to watch prices than the news to anticipate what’s coming. Rather than try to trade these commodities, it’s better to target the stocks retail investors will pile into after the event. For me, that means defense stocks. I must admit to buying Equinor, the Norwegian state oil company –whose supply isn’t Middle East-centric.

Meanwhile, BTC dropped – supposedly because equities were falling on news of Iran’s bombing. This doesn’t support the idea of bitcoin as a haven or non-correlated asset. In fact, those well-worn narratives feel pretty outdated now.

So what next? Here’s what I see:

You get the drift – it’s a pretty simple idea.

Meanwhile, parroted memes are everywhere. I can’t describe how unsettling it is to hear so many people talking such nonsense about crypto in general. Wild narrative are a huge trend in the media these days. It’s clear that a vast number of people are not just consumers, but believers in whatever they’re fed – and that’s pretty awful. Investing with the herd is always a risky game.

The crazy “buy now or miss the boat” FOMO memes are as wild as ever. Apparently, bitcoin is now going to hit a million per coin – if you believe the promoters. When does the madness end?

Not as soon as it should, I feel.

So, rather than stake out an opinion and take a position against the howling mob, I’ll just say: the map is above. But if bitcoin makes a new high – just a few thousand dollars over the last – then rather than jump in, look instead to what will boil over in the next geopolitical emergency. Because that’s what BTC might be signaling is on the way.

For me, that means precious metals and defense stocks – not crypto. And sneaking up on me is oil: safe oil.