Coin WorldSaturday, Jul 5, 2025 7:28 pm ET

3min read

Global liquidity has become a critical factor influencing Bitcoin's price movements, with increased liquidity driving investment into riskier assets like Bitcoin. The current market dynamics reflect rapid adjustments within the Bitcoin ecosystem, highlighting the significance of liquidity in shaping Bitcoin's price trends.

Global M2, which includes cash and liquid assets, plays a pivotal role in determining Bitcoin's pricing. Historical data shows that significant increases in M2, driven by stimulative policies, have corresponded with major Bitcoin price rises. For instance, the substantial uptick in M2 during 2020 led to a notable increase in Bitcoin's value. Similar trends were observed during the expansions in 2016-2017 and contractions during 2018-2019 and 2022. These patterns illustrate the strong linkage between global M2 and Bitcoin's market value, with ongoing money supply increases being the norm. The acceleration or deceleration of these increases provides insights into Bitcoin’s bullish or bearish tendencies. However, M2 updates lag, leading to delayed action as liquidity first heads towards traditional assets before reaching riskier ones like cryptocurrencies.

Stablecoins offer a more agile view of liquidity shifts compared to M2 data. Correlations between shifts in stablecoin supplies—such as USDT, USDC, and DAI—and Bitcoin prices are more immediate. A surge or wane in these supplies typically forecasts substantial short-term movements in Bitcoin’s market position. Observing the 28-day change in stablecoin supply provides insight into short-term liquidity fluctuations. Uptrends signal accumulation and potential Bitcoin price rises, whereas downturns suggest peak reaching and pullbacks. For instance, an upswing in stablecoin supply in late 2024 aligned with Bitcoin’s price peak, while a decrease foreshadowed subsequent value drops. Currently, stablecoin resurgence hints at a forthcoming Bitcoin rally.

Monitoring stablecoin supply provides real-time data, closely trailing Bitcoin’s price shifts. Strategies such as reducing holdings during extreme gains and capitalizing on stablecoin supply growth can yield beneficial outcomes. This real-time aspect makes stablecoins crucial for short-term market positioning. However, stablecoins are vital for capturing rapid market shifts, though long-term trends still rely on global M2 metrics. Frequent review of stablecoin changes might aid in effective market timing, yet relying solely on such metrics without comprehensive analysis can be misleading. Investors are advised to assess the broader market landscape before making decisions.

A significant event unfolded in the cryptocurrency market as a large amount of Bitcoin, totaling 80,000 BTC, was transferred from wallets that had remained dormant for over 14 years. This substantial movement has sparked widespread speculation and raised numerous questions about the identity and motives behind the transfer. The transfer occurred during a period of heightened geopolitical tensions and a U.S. holiday weekend, which typically sees lower market liquidity. This timing has intensified the speculation surrounding the whale's intentions, with some suggesting that the move could be a form of market manipulation. Theories about the ownership of these wallets range from an early miner to a potential hack, highlighting the opaque nature of large Bitcoin movements. The lack of transparency in large Bitcoin movements underscores the challenges in tracing such transactions.

Bitcoin analyst Sani made a striking claim about the identity of the whale, suggesting that these BTCs may belong to Roger Ver. Sani's analysis is based on a discussion from last year where MrHodl mentioned Roger Ver's potential BTC holdings. By comparing the dates of Roger Ver’s past purchase activity with unidentified addresses in his database, Sani identified six addresses with 60,000 BTC. All six of these addresses made transfers yesterday, along with two other addresses previously tagged as "Individual X." This chain of transactions, resulting in the transfer of 80,000 BTC, has drawn attention to Roger Ver as a potential owner. Sani also suggested that this move could be part of a possible deal Roger Ver might make with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Known in the crypto world as “Bitcoin Jesus,” Roger Ver is recognized as one of the early investors in Bitcoin. However, in recent years, he has become a controversial figure, particularly with his support for Bitcoin SV.

Despite the initial price dip, the broader market context suggests that this event is more of a catalyst for short-term volatility rather than a fundamental shift. Key technical indicators paint a more optimistic picture for long-term investors. The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 25, marking the threshold between a lack of trend and the emergence of a directional move. This suggests that the market is poised for potential trend development. Bitcoin’s price remains comfortably above both the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-week EMA, confirming the persistence of a strong bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 indicates moderate upward momentum with room to grow before reaching overbought levels. Additionally, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator signals expanding volatility with a bullish bias, reinforcing the view that hodlers and position traders maintain confidence despite short-term bearish pressures.

Investors should closely monitor key Bitcoin price levels to navigate potential volatility. Resistance levels to watch include $110,000 and $115,000, while support levels include $105,000, $100,000, and $87,394. These levels will likely dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory as market participants digest the whale’s activity and broader macroeconomic factors. While traders remain cautious amid geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact, supported by strong moving averages and momentum indicators. Market participants should maintain a balanced perspective on both immediate price action and overarching bullish fundamentals.