Nigeria’s north-central region has been engulfed in protracted conflict for decades. But the violence receives less humanitarian attention, government intervention and global publicity than Boko Haram terrorism in the North-east and banditry in the North-west.

In the North-central, rural communities often bear the brunt of attacks. On 13 June, armed groups attacked Yelwata in Benue State’s Guma Local Government Area, reportedly killing over 200 people. In April, gunmen killed at least 52 people and displaced nearly 2,000 residents over several days of attacks in neighbouring Plateau State.

Perceptions vary about why attacks occur and who the perpetrators are. Security analyst Bulama Bukarti tags the violence as terrorism. Prominent Benue State politician Terseer Ugbor explains it from the perspective of identity politics, saying Fulani herdsmen are taking land in Benue State.

Some claim it’s due to religious differences between the largely Muslim herding community and their mostly Christian host farming communities; or link the attacks to foreign criminals who enter Nigeria via porous borders.

Others say the violence stems from resource scarcity, farmer-herder disagreement about land use, and the impacts of climate change. Climate change is indeed a threat multiplier, disrupting opportunities for livelihoods, leading to failure in agricultural productivity and forced population displacement.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu says the conflict requires communal peace-building and resolution, and has advised the state governor to “pursue reconciliation and dialogue as part of a political solution to the ongoing killings in the state.”

Framing the root causes of any conflict is vital to finding durable solutions. What is clear is that violence in Nigeria is a manifestation of state failure. The state has proven unable, unwilling and incapable of protecting its citizens. It has failed in five key areas: intelligence, protection, delivery of justice, politics and strategy.

Intelligence forms the bedrock of security governance by gathering and acting on processed information. Although the government has diverse defence, security, intelligence and law enforcement institutions to undertake this task, its approach has been reactive at best, and ineffective at worst.

This is evident in its failure to turn early warning information into actionable intelligence, or to proactively use available intelligence to prevent attacks. There are instances where communities have reported witnessing the gathering of armed groups, but law enforcement failed to act. Tinubu affirmed this problem when he rebuked senior police officers during a recent visit to Benue, asking why no arrests had been made.

Regarding protection, the state has failed to deploy the military and police to ensure citizens’ safety. While soldiers are reportedly deployed to the epicentres of violence in the North-central, locals are again targeted as soon as the military leaves the area. Criminals also relocate to other communities to perpetrate attacks.

These reactionary responses by state security and law enforcement agencies have not helped stem the deadly violence in north-central Nigeria (or indeed other parts of the country), as ACLED data confirms (see chart). Benue experienced 722 violent attacks and 3,251 deaths from 2015 to 2024. ACLED relies heavily on information from local groups and media reports, so many incidents go unrecorded.

The third area of state failure is ensuring a judicial system that can process legitimate grievances, punish offenders and compensate victims. Despite repeated presidential directives, victims and the public rarely see perpetrators of this violence being arrested, prosecuted and convicted – so there is little to deter future attacks.

When arrests do occur, those charged aren’t always prosecuted. This emboldens criminals and reinforces victims’ grievances against the state.

Furthermore, the government struggles to enforce its authority and the law across the entire country. This not only enables the emergence of groups with access to illicit weapons, but challenges the state’s territorial integrity, as armed groups take control of some rural areas and borderlands.

At the political level, the fourth key area, citizens have not seen the government demonstrate any decisive commitment to ending the crisis. Instead, the state has repeated promises of security that have not translated into action. This is apparent in the rising number of attacks on rural civilians.

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The last area of government failure relates to strategy. Nigeria’s state authorities continue to negotiate with organised criminal gangs and bandits, who carry out mass attacks in north-central and north-west Nigeria. Such negotiations are flawed, as the sub-national governments constitutionally lack control over the military and police. That means they engage armed groups from a position of weakness – further highlighting the erosion of state authority.

The poor framing of violence in north-central Nigeria has led to misdiagnosis, inappropriate policy responses and the escalation of conflict rather than solutions. What is happening there is not terrorism, as it lacks an ideological underpinning; and it goes beyond climate change explanations and religious or farmer-herder conflicts. Instead, it is protracted criminality that is intentional and coordinated, and should be treated as such.

The state must make a concerted effort to revamp and deploy all instruments of national power – such as its army, police and a competent judiciary – to address violent crime by gathering intelligence and fostering deterrence.

If the criminals are foreign fighters, how do they get into the country? Where are the arms and ammunition coming from? What are the state’s strategies to curb the influx of criminals and illicit weapons? These pertinent questions must be answered to enable the government to reinforce security and go beyond merely identifying and labelling the perpetrators.

Oluwole Ojewale, ENACT Central Africa Organised Crime Observatory Coordinator, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and Freedom Onuoha, Department of Political Science and Coordinator, Security, Violence and Conflict Research Group, University of Nigeria

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).