Amazon’s four-day Prime Day sales event is expected to drive a record $23.8 billion in U.S. e-commerce sales this week, according to a forecast released today by Adobe.

The sales will take place not only on Amazon, but on other e-commerce sites, large and small, as competing retailers join in on what has become one of the biggest sales event of the year.

Adobe expects the spending over the event, which was expanded from two days to four this year, to be equivalent to two Black Fridays, in terms of online spending. Last year, consumers spent $10.8 billion on U.S. e-commerce sites on Black Friday, according to Adobe.

Spending for the four day event is forecast to be up 28.4%, or $9.6 billion, compared to a comparable period last year, Adobe reported.

Amazon announced in June that this year’s summer sale would extend from July 8 through 11, twice as long as last year’s two-day event. This is the first time the July Prime Day sale has spanned four days.

The e-commerce giant also added another first this year, daily deal drops available for limited times while supplies last. This strategy is designed to hold consumers’ attentions throughout the four-day sale period, and keep them checking their phones frequently for new deals.

Purchases made on phones and other mobile devices are again expected to hit record levels, at an estimated $12.5 billion, or 52.5% of online sales, according to Adobe’s forecast. Mobile shopping is a growth driver because more impulse purchases are made on mobile devices, Adobe reported.

Adobe expects Prime Day-related discounts to be comparable to last year’s, and range between 10% to 24% off. The biggest average discounts are expected in apparel, at 24%, followed by electronics, 22% off; televisions, 17%; appliances, 16%; toys, 15%; furniture, 14%; computers, 12%; and sporting goods, 10%.

Generative AI-powered chatbots and other AI shopping assistants are expected to play a big role in this year’s Prime Day. Based on the surge in AI-driven sales during the 2024 holiday season, Adobe is anticipating that traffic from generative AI sources will be up 3,200% during the Prime Day event.

“While AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details,” Adobe reported.

Sales driven by affiliates and partners - which includes social media influencers - is expected to equal 19.9% of revenue, according to Adobe, up 16.6% over a year ago. Adobe’s data shows consumers are 10 times more likely to make a purchase after seeing influencer content, compared to social media overall.

Adobe tracks online spending throughout the year, and has studied Prime Day events in particular as an important indicator of consumer trends and spending confidence. It analyzes direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites.

Adobe expects, based on past behavior, that consumers are waiting for Prime Day discounts before buying big ticket items such as electronics and smartphones.

Consumers also are expected to use Prime Day discounts to trade-up to higher-priced items, with the sales share of the most expensive goods expected to increase by 18% during the Prime Day event, compared to average levels.