Several months of nocturnal meetings by prominent politicians in the country, Wednesday, culminated in the adoption of the African Democratic Congress, as the official political platform of the opposition coalition. But can they serve as the much-needed counterfoil to the allegedly looming one-party state by the ruling All Progressives Congress? writes

To some political observers, the recent defections by some governors to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)seemed to have made 2027 a foregone conclusion for President Bola Tinubu. But the emergence of the coalition African Democratic Congress (ADC), might have changed the permutations. Now, the ruling party has a fight on their hands.

When Celebration Came too Soon

If after the defection, quick succession, of the governor of Akwa Ibom State, Umo Eno, and his Delta State counterpart, Sheriff Oborevwori, to the ruling APC, an average supporter of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu felt the 2027 presidential contest was already in the bag, you would be unfair if you did not forgive him or her for thinking so.

But developments in the last one week have shown that no soccer match is ever won before a ball is kicked and no political contest is decided unless votes are cast. It would not be surprising, therefore, if the presidency has been having some sleepless nights recently.

Beyond electoral value in terms of votes, the two states of Akwa Ibom and Delta are among the five richest states in the country. And in a country where deep pockets play a major role in electioneering, top leaders in the ruling party would be salivating politically with the grinning belief that their political negotiating net had captured a big fish.

In the case of Akwa Ibom, the Senate President, Godwill Akpabio, himself a former helmsman in the state, played a major role. There were also the muted whispers that a combination of blackmail and subterfuge had influenced the defection, especially as it related to Delta State.

Defecting with Oborevwori was the immediate past governor of the state, Ifeanyi Okowa.

Not only was Okowa a staunch member of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), he was the vice-presidential candidate of the party during the 2023 presidential election. Observers, therefore, believed thatOkowa might have been blackmailed into joining the APC to stave off being prosecuted by the EFCC for sundry allegations of financial recklessness against him.

However, while the presidency was still clinking glasses over the capture of these political big fishes, a rude reality check was handed down on Wednesday July 2nd, 2025, when some undoubtable political big wigs led by former Senate President, David Mark; former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; one time governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi; former governor of Rivers State and immediate past Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi;  former Kaduna State governor and one time Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha, former governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola, former Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, veteran journalist and one time Minister of Youth and Sports, Bolaji Abdullahi,amongst others came together to launch a coalition under the aegis of the ADC.

There was, however, a mild drama before the official launch itself. The original venue was the Wells Carlton Hotel in Asokoro, Abuja. The hotel, owned by late billionaire businessman, Captain Hosa Wells Okunbo, had, at the last minute refused the use of the place citing, some “internal compliance issues”.

Though many in political circles, conversant with the pettiness that usually accentuates the nation’s politicking knew that perhaps, pressure had been put on the management of the hotel to deny them the use of the hotel. However, like the proverbial palace that had to get burnt to earn a facelift, the organisers moved to the Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Central District and it turned to be an even more strategic venue.

Mark Marked His Marquee Comeback

Appointed as the Interim National Chairman of the party is a former Senate President, David Bonaventure Mark. A former soldier and one time military governor of`  Niger State, there could never have been a better choice than the former Minister of Communications.

Speaking at the launch, Mark said the coalition had nothing to do with election or gaining power. To him, it was about the battle for the democratic soul of the country ominously flirting with one-party statehood. The open courting of opposition governors, the dangling of poliical carrots and application of subtle blackmail had combined to make even the most apolitical observer feel that the ruling party has zero respect for political pluralism.

Mark said: “Let it be known to all that this coalition of national political opposition groups goes beyond gaining political power. It is a concerted effort to rebuild the crumbling pillars of Nigeria’s democracy.

“Today marks the beginning of what we believe will be a long, difficult and tedious journey. However, it is a journey that we are prepared to undertake, united in our collective belief that no price or sacrifice is too high in the service of our fatherland.”

He was not done. “The blatant destabilisation and infiltration of all major opposition political parties is aimed at achieving only one objective, to enhance total state capture and leave Nigerians with no alternative or options in 2027. This coalition is to prevent our country’s descent into a one-party state.”

Clinical Destablisation of Opposition

Talking about infiltration of opposition parties, the PDP and Labour Party have been embroiled in crises that many know have nothing to do with inability to manage their internal issues but a blatant external manipulation. The case of the PDP is even peculiar.

For more than two years, the party has been unable to have a substantive National Secretary with two individuals laying claim to the post. That even pales into a child’s pastime withthe antics of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and immediate former governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike.

Wike is claiming to still be in PDP (he even recently stormed one of their meetings) but he is a serving minister under the APC. In a move that has never been seen in the history of politicking and electioneering in the country, Wike said he would do everything possible to ensure the PDP loses the 2027 election and he made it clear that he would work for the re-election of President Tinubu.

However, in the midst of all this, Wike claimed he was still a member of the PDP. Perhaps, anti-party activities have assumed a different meaning as far as politicking in Nigeria is concerned. It is now an open venture.

While Wike carried on with the onerous task of being the political undertaker of PDP, the Labour Party was having its own internal wrangling. The party has two national chairmen with one of them, Julius Abure, claiming that Peter Obi came to hijack the party in 2023 and that he would expose the former Anambra State governor.

Another factional chairman, Lamidi Apapa, who had disappeared from the scene leaving the party for Abure and the Nenadi Usman-led Caretaker Committee, resurfaced. But he reappeared in April this year claiming that he had taken over the party. He was relying on the certified true copy of the Supreme Court ruling, which set aside the Court of Appeal judgment recognising Abure as the party’s National Chairman.

Many political observers believed that the crises rocking these opposition parties were not ordinary. In fact, the belief in political circles is that these crises were being sponsored by the ruling party, specifically the presidency, to ensure that they were not organised and cohesive enough to present any form of opposition come 2027. If there was no concrete proof to back these up, the antics of the likes of Wike were enough evidence.

Two Can Play That Game

Tinubu, a former Lagos State governor, who is now the nation’s chief executive, has often been labeled as master political strategist with cold but calculated political moves. He is also seen as a man who is capable of pulling off any political stunt and is always on top of his game. While all these attributes might be true to some extent, it has also been proven that these were not exclusive to him. Perhaps by now, he might have started realising that others too are as good as he is in the game.

It all started some few months ago when the former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, announced his move to the Social Democratic Party, SDP. No sooner had he done this than the National Secretary of the party, Olu Agunloye, a former chief executive of the Federal Road Safety Corps, FRSC, petitioned the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, that there were ploys to kick him out of the party.

In his petition to the IGP, Agunloye said he “petitioned the IG about a person who forged letterhead paper and is threatening to resign.” Ironically, this was the same Agunloye who had been in a seeming political limbo for a long time as he battled to save his head amid allegations of financial impropriety when he was Minister of Power and Steel. But immediately El-Rufai joined, the former Minister of State for Defence quickly found his voice. Not long after, the same voice was lost.

The next distraction was the rumoured application to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), by the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), for registration. It was one of the 110 parties that applied to INEC for registration. The social media went agog with the rumour that it was the party those mulling coalition were planning to use to slug it out with the ruling APC.

In fact, Atiku and El-Rufai were claimed to be behind the party. The logo of the party was being shared across social media platforms. But as this was going, another orchestrated confusion set in. Another party with the moniker, ADA, came up. It was called the All Democratic Alliance and was being promoted by one Ahmadu Suleiman as the protem National Chairman and one Zipporah Miracles as the National Secretary. But Amaechi was the real brain behind it.

While the confusion was still going on, the coalition promoters announced the adoption of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), as the new party. Apparently aware of the incredible capacity of the Presidency to throw spanner into their works again, credible sources told THISDAY that resignation letters had been extracted from the leadership of the party before the adoption. It was therefore not surprising when the leadership of the party led by Ralph Nwosu, the founding National Chairman, handed over the party to David Mark.

His words: “We all decided to resign so that Mark, Aregbesola and others can lead us to the (Presidential) Villa. We also approved Mark as National Chairman and Aregbesola as the National Secretary of the party. When you look at the two of them and their commitment to this country, you’ll see that this is a new beginning. They will reposition the party and Nigeria.”

Now the Game Has Just Begun

The emergence of former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola, as the interim National Secretary of the party could not but have deeper ramifications for political alignments in the Southwest. Many were shocked by Aregbesola’s involvement in the new political coalition with many accusing him of betrayal going by the fact that he owes whatever he is today to Tinubu.

But Aregbesola has been having running battle over the control of the APC party structure in the state with his immediate successor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola. Oyetola was never Aregbesola’s pick as his successor, he had only obliged him in deference to Tinubu. But immediately Oyetola became governor, Aregbesola was marked for total political annihilation. Now that Aregbesola is fully in opposition, the game has just begun.

The state is due for another gubernatorial election in 2026. The incumbent, Ademola Adeleke, is seeking a second term in office and is believed to be willing to do business with the APC at the centre so he could get a second term while he works for Tinubu the following year. Ironically, many believed that Aregbesola threw his structure behind him in 2022 against his then party, the APC. This, it was believed, helped Adeleke to defeat Oyetola.

The question is: will Aregbesola throw his weight behind Adeleke again bearing in mind that he (Adeleke) is already ‘negotiating’ with the APC? Indeed, the speculation is that, part of the deal Adeleke had with the president is to not have anything to do with Aregbesola. The other possibility is for Aregbesola to support another strong candidate who will run on the platform of the now strengthened ADC.

“I think it is going to be interesting,” a political analyst told THISDAY. “Aregbesola remains a very strong political figure in Osun State and he is a massive grassroots mobiliser, who will play a major role in whoever emerges as the next Osun governor. The days ahead will determine. Will he support Adeleke again? Or he will back a fresh candidate on ADC platform? Let’s wait and see.”

In the North, some governors and senators on the platform of the APC were being rumoured to be on their way to the ADC, especially those governors not looking for second term in office. Apart from this, the alleged anti-Tinubu sentiment in some parts of the North might force even some first term governors to review and weigh the choices available to them. It seems the 2014/15 scenario is about playing out again when some PDP governors secretly and some, openly, worked for the rival APC going by the political mood in region then. Ironically, a recent poll commissioned by the coalition and which El-Rufai alluded to at an interview with the Arise News TV, revealed the president is doing well in the North West.

Hate him or like him, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar remains one political figure you ignore at your own peril. He has not only been around, politically, for 35 odd years, he has also been as constant as the northern star. While many have accused him of political harlotry going by his constant change of political associations, he is arguably the politician with the largest and most organised political structure in the country today. Opinions are sharply divided on whether he should run again in 2027 but it will be foolhardy on the parts of the promoters of the coalition if that is allowed to be an issue in these early days.

But beyond that, Atiku brings to the coalition the experience and organisational strength that no one in the group, or even outside it, could rival.

The former Anambra State governor shocked many people in 2023 when he pulled over six million votes in that year’s presidential election. Without a known national political structure, Obi rode on a massive wave of support from young Nigerians seeking a total break from the past and a permanent of the old guards.  Obi’s support cuts across the country and that support is still active. Many still believe, however, that if Obi had not left PDP to run on the platform of the Labour Party in 2023, APC would never have won the election.

Between him and Atiku, the PDP candidate, was a whopping 14 million votes. Whereas, Tinubu, the APC candidate, polled about 8.9million votes!

Obi brings one thing to the coalition: massive support by the staggering youth population. Perceived in some quarters as upright and not tainted like other political regular travellers, his joining the coalition should send a clear message that the division within the opposition that worked in favour of the ruling party will not be allowed this time.

Former Senate President, David Bonaventure Mark, wrote his name in gold when the National Assembly under his leadership came with the Doctrine of Necessity to save the nation from a collapse in 2010. The then President, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, had been sick in faraway Saudi Arabia but he did not commute a letter to the National Assembly officially transferring power to then Vice-President, Goodluck Jonathan.

With the nation in limbo over power vacuum and threat of possible military takeover, Mark led the National Assembly to come with a novel idea called the Doctrine of Necessity, the first of its kind in the history of the country, to make Jonathan the Acting President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forced.

Mark becoming the interim National Chairman of the party not only confers massive credibility on the coalition, it also sends a powerful message on the seriousness attached to the assignment. Calm, cool and unassuming, Mark is a choice only few could have questioned.

The former governor of Kaduna State is controversy personified. But one thing you cannot take away from El-Rufai is that he brings intellectual dimension and critical reasoning into political conversations. With an incredible capacity to whip up emotions and stir up the hornet’s nest, El-Rufai will serve as the northern version of Aregbesola in the coalition.

El-Rufai was at the fore-front of power returning to the South after Buhari in 2015 and he played a major role in the emergence of the current president as the flag-bearer of the ruling APC.

But he fell out with Tinubu shortly after his swearing-in and they became political foes.

El-Rufai is not only a strong northern political figure, but a prominent member of the region’s political phalange.

The former governor of Rivers State and immediate past Minister of Transportation, Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, is arguably one of the longest serving public office holders in the coalition, having been holding office from 1999 till 2023 when he quit as minister. Whatever misgivings anyone might have about Amaechi, he is one of the bravest in the group and could stand up to anyone regardless of who they are.

Many in the Niger Delta, today, still blame Amaechi for the ouster of Goodluck Jonathan, after aligning with Muhammadu Buhari to push him out in 2015. But since he quietly moved away from APC, he has been one of the major brains behind the coalition. In fact, he headed the committee that determined the choice of using a new platform as against an existing one. His committee came up with the idea of ADA. He a much-needed force for his youthful energy at mobilisation.

The former Minister of Interior is a grassroots politician, organiser and mobiliser. His emergence as the interim National Secretary of the new coalition party was a game changer. A critical party position, he is a major political figure from the South-west and it was a big steal from the political family of President Tinubu.

One attribute of Aregbesola is his incredible ability to organise political engagements and build bridges.

He is an experienced hand and one who was at a time the number one right hand man of Tinubu. While they may never admit it, losing Aregbesola to the coalition is a massive blow to Tinubu’s political structure. And one thing that has been working for him is that seven years after leaving office as governor, his political structure in Osun State and part of Lagos is still relevant.

An old political war horse, Sule Lamido was the National Secretary of the then Social Democratic Party (SDP), on which platform the late Bashorun MKO Abiola ran and presumably won the June 12, 1993 presidential election.

Lamido was to later serve as the governor of Jigawa State on the platform of the PDP. Lamido is one of the most experienced politicians in the country today and he brings to the coalition an organisational and grassroots mobilisation experience needed in these critical early days.

Former Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami is the brain behind the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) structure, one of the legacy parties within the ruling APC. He is credited with doing a lot of leg and background work towards the emergence of the coalition. He is said to have looked at the legal loopholes that could be exploited by the ruling party to throw spanner into their works and ensured these were taken care of.

A former governor of Edo State, John Odigie Oyegun, is another big catch for the coalition. Oyegun was governor of Edo State from January 1992 to November 1993. He then joined National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) to fight for restoration of democracy and when the APC was to be formed, he was elected the national chairman after the interim National Chairman of the party, Chief Bisi Akande left. He worked towards the party’s victory in the 2015 general elections and also in 2019.

Sources told THISDAY that Oyegun has never been a fan of Tinubu even when both of them were in the same party. It was, therefore, not surprising that he has taken a back seat since when Tinubu became President. Oyegun brings political maturity to the coalition even if age is no longer on his side.

Another Trojan, who has been around for so long, is Chief Tom Ikimi. This time 35 years ago, Ikimi emerged as the National Chairman of the now defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), before becoming the Minister of Foreign Affairs under the military regime of General Sani Abacha. 

Ikimi pitched his tent with the PDP in 1998 and left the party to join the APC upon the formation of the party in 2013. One of the most experienced politicians around, he brings that father figure to the coalition.

A retired civil servant, Babangida Aliyu served as governor of Niger State between 2007 and 2015. A consummate politician with wealth of experience, he was one of those who threw their weight behind power returning to the North in 2015 and he did not support then President, Goodluck Jonathan, picking the party’s presidential ticket. For the new coalition, Aliyu is another big catch.

Tambuwal was a two-term governor of Sokoto State and former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Tambuwal cut his political teeth as a Legislative Aide before being elected into the House of Representatives on the platform of the PDP on which same platform he became governor in 2015. 

Tambuwal’s emergence as Speaker was not without controversy as his party never wanted him but Mulikat Akande from Osun State, whose political career was cut short by Tinubu, his Southwest brother.

Tambuwal brings political experience and extensive organisational network into the coalition.

The former governor of Imo State is yet another big catch for the coalition. Ihedioha is an unassuming politician, who seems to detest controversy. He resigned from the PDP over a year ago after the structure of the party in the state was taken away from him. Emeka, as he is fondly called, was one-time aide to Atiku. With him, the coalition and ADC are sure to make strong in-road into the South-East, especially, Imo State.

Fifty-five year-old Senator Suleiman Nazif is former senator representing Bauchi North Senatorial District. In a state dominated by the ruling APC and where the current Vice-President, Kassim Shettima, comes from, he is a big catch for the coalition, especially if the rumoured plan to drop Shettima turns out to be true.

Jibrilla Bindow served as the Senator representing Adamawa North Senatorial District between 2011 and 2015 before becoming governor of the state on the platform of the APC in 2015. He was voted out in 2019 and he seems to have kept his loyalty to Atiku. His joining the coalition is a major boost to Atiku, who needs a strong home base to strengthen the party in the months ahead. Bindow joining the coalition is another loss to the APC.