The 2024-2025 college basketball regular season has concluded, setting the stage for the ACC Tournament. This year, the UNC basketball program, led by Hubert Davis, enters as the No. 5 seed, commencing their journey towards an ACC Tournament title on Wednesday, March 12th. Their first challenge awaits them at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, where they will face the winner of the contest between No. 12 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the No. 13 seed Pittsburgh Panthers. This matchup is slated for 2:30 PM.

Despite the anticipation for the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels recently suffered an XXX loss against a dominant Duke team. This game also marked RJ Davis's farewell at the Dean Dome. Although Duke secured the victory, the game was notably different from their previous encounter in Durham. Duke had the potential to win by a significant margin in their earlier game, but they faced a much tougher challenge against an improved UNC team in Chapel Hill. As it stands, North Carolina faces a critical need to make substantial improvements in Charlotte to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke's triumph over North Carolina secured them the ACC regular-season crown. Meanwhile, Louisville, Clemson, and Wake Forest have earned double-byes, advancing directly to the quarterfinals, which commence on Thursday. It's worth noting that North Carolina has previously defeated both Notre Dame and Pittsburgh during the regular season. They achieved a narrow 74-73 victory over Notre Dame in South Bend and split their series with Pittsburgh, with each team winning on their home court. Should the Tar Heels advance past their second-round matchup, they are set to face Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. In their regular-season game, North Carolina suffered a narrow one-point defeat against the Demon Deacons, a game many believe they should have won.

The UNC basketball program's aspirations for the NCAA Tournament are precarious, making a deep run in the ACC Tournament essential for their chances of selection. A potential rematch with Duke in the semifinals represents the sole Quad 1 game opportunity on that side of the bracket for the Tar Heels, making a third encounter with the Blue Devils a critical must-win situation for Hubert Davis's team.

The 2024-25 season has been challenging for Hubert Davis and North Carolina, falling short of preseason expectations. The Tar Heels possess only one Quad 1 win and have missed numerous opportunities to strengthen their resume. Despite a six-game winning streak that concluded with an 82-69 loss to Duke, North Carolina still harbors hopes of making the NCAA Tournament. However, they require additional signature wins to bolster their case for an at-large bid. The loss to Duke, where they relinquished a second-half lead, underscored the need for significant improvements. As they enter the ACC Tournament, a deep run is imperative to solidify their NCAA Tournament aspirations.

Currently, North Carolina holds a 20-12 overall record and a 13-7 mark in ACC play. While these numbers might typically suffice for NCAA Tournament consideration, the ACC's relative weakness this year complicates their situation. Only Duke, Louisville, and Clemson are considered locks for the tournament. North Carolina's 0-4 record against these teams highlights the necessity for a standout win in the conference tournament. Their struggles against top competition extend beyond the ACC, with a 1-11 record in Quad 1 games. This record is a significant impediment, as no team with a similar Quad 1 record has received an at-large bid in previous tournaments. Their sole Quad 1 victory came against UCLA on a neutral court in December.

While North Carolina's metrics, such as their No. 40 NET ranking, are respectable, they are insufficient to compensate for the deficiencies in their resume. Other bubble teams, like Xavier, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas, and Oklahoma, possess better wins and are ranked higher in bracket projections. To improve their tournament chances, North Carolina must secure at least one victory over Duke, Louisville, or Clemson in the ACC Tournament. Most projections currently place them outside the tournament field, underscoring the urgency of their situation.

The path to quality wins is more challenging in the ACC compared to other conferences. While teams in the Big East, Mountain West, and SEC have ample opportunities for Quad 1 wins, North Carolina's draw in the ACC Tournament presents fewer such chances. As the No. 5 seed, they begin against either Notre Dame or Pittsburgh, a game they cannot afford to lose. A victory would lead to a quarterfinal clash with Wake Forest, a fellow bubble team. While a win against Wake Forest would provide momentum, it would not significantly enhance their tournament resume. The draw presents a further challenge, as Duke likely awaits in the semifinals, rather than Louisville or Clemson, who would offer better opportunities for a significant win. Duke's dominance in the ACC, with a 19-1 record and numerous double-digit victories, underscores the difficulty of this potential matchup. For North Carolina, defeating Duke is essential to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, and winning the entire tournament may be necessary to secure an at-large bid.

In a recent game against North Carolina, Duke basketball emerged victorious, with coach Jon Scheyer delivering a concise halftime message to his team. Despite nearly relinquishing a double-digit lead, Scheyer expressed satisfaction with the adversity his team faced. Emphasizing the importance of remaining the hunters rather than the hunted, Scheyer urged his team to approach each game with a sense of urgency, recognizing that every loss could mark the end of their season. This message resonated with the Blue Devils, who regained their composure in the second half to secure an 82-69 victory. With this win, Duke clinched the ACC regular-season championship, boasting a remarkable 19-1 record in the league, led by freshman standout Cooper Flagg. As the No. 1 seed entering the ACC tournament, Duke is poised for a deep postseason run, with Scheyer aiming for his first Final Four appearance in his third season as head coach.

Jon Scheyer's tenure as head coach of the Duke Blue Devils has been marked by remarkable success, recently culminating in the team securing the No. 1 seed in the ACC. Finishing the season with a 28-3 record overall and a dominant 19-1 mark in ACC play, Scheyer has already etched his name in the program's history. Following their victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke's official social media channels highlighted Scheyer's achievement of amassing the most wins (82) in his first three seasons as a coach in ACC history, surpassing the previous record held by North Carolina's Bill Guthridge. Taking over from the legendary Mike Krzyzewski, Scheyer inherited immense expectations but has successfully guided the Blue Devils to continued success. As they prepare for the ACC Tournament, where they will receive a bye into the quarterfinals, Duke stands as a formidable contender under Scheyer's leadership.