2025 NBA Finals: Indiana v OKC Preview & Predictions
Two things can be true. I've been preaching his elite the OKC Thunder are, and how underrated the Indiana Pacers can be. Contrary to popular takes, I love the matchup between these two teams. I still believe a healthy Boston team would've made their way here—however, the Pacers deserve to be here.
No. 4 in the Eastern Conference, this is a team that's brilliantly coached by Rick Carlisle. Headlined by guard Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana has a ton of moving parts. Remember when the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam, following the blockbuster trade that sent Haliburton to the Pacers for Sabonis? It all makes sense.
While everyone was honed in on the Celtics, Lakers, and other teams, the Pacers quietly built their team. This didn't happen by accident, as Indiana made their second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals. Now they are headed to their first NBA Finals in 25 years.
What makes this Pacers so dangerous is the depth and versatility. It all starts with Haliburton, who's proven he's "Mr. Clutch" time and time again. Let's not sleep on x-factors Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. I'm expecting Nemhard to be tasked with guarding the best on ball guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
There's no question the Pacers lacked defense at times, ranking No. 14 in defensive rating and No. 9 in offensive rating over the course of the regular season. However, post All-Star break, the Pacers boasted the eighth best defense with a 20-9 record.
In the playoffs, we've seen the Pacers cruise by the Bucks (4-2), and most impressively—the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-1). Not to mention, defeating and the New York Knicks (4-2). Throughout the playoffs, they've been one of the most powerful teams on the offensive end.
Now, they face a historically dominant team in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Knocking at the door for quite some time, this is a team that's lead by MVP Gilgeous-Alexander. With a franchise best 68-14 regular season record, this is an organization that was dominant is several facets.
The top defensive team in the NBA, the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein were brilliant. Sure the Pacers have Siakam and Myles Turner, however the Thunder have an incredibly strong frontcourt duo in Chet Holmgren and Hartenstein.
In 16 postseason games against the Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Timberwolves, this is a Thunder team that's suffered just four losses. While the defense is expected to stand out, don't sleep on the role players. SGA may carry this team, however, was a crucial x-factor, especially against Minnesota in Game 4 of the WCF.
The list of talent runs deep among this Thunder roster, and this is the most talented OKC team we've seen since the , , and days.
The Thunder went an undefeated 2-0 against the Pacers, boasting a +27 point differential. While I love a good underdog story, I do think this Pacers team will put up a larger fight than most think. The Thunder are simple the most dominant team from top to bottom in the NBA. It's been evident since the beginning of the season.
Those who whine that this Finals isn’t the umpteenth incarnation of Celtics-Lakers will curb their complaining once they see the inflated scores from two teams packed to the brim with offensive firepower. While that should make for some narrow contests, one team has just a little more to play for and that makes them more dangerous.
This is Oklahoma City’s top chance to win a title and it has certainly played like its fully aware of it in recent weeks. Easy victories over Memphis and Minnesota sandwiched a hard-fought seven-game set against Denver and the momentum of postseason honors for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only provide further fuel. Most importantly, the Thunder know how fleeting one’s time at the top can be: the shared trip for Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook in 2012 was supposed to be the first of many such visits.
All that and more points things in a strong direction for the Thunder and dangerous time for the Pacers, who are grateful to be back in the Finals round for the first time in a quarter-century. Combined that with the fact that the Thunder are well-rested and watered and this series could prove exciting yet quick.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since 2025 began. They have done all the little things to prepare themselves and have knocked off several quality teams on their way to the NBA Finals. Indiana has erased multiple leads and battled through the playoffs on a nightly basis, but will square off with an OKC that beat them twice in the regular season by a combined 27 points. The Pacers play a fast and gritty style, but the Thunder's depth and talent may pose a significant challenge.
Oklahoma City enters the Finals with the advantage of rest, having not played in over a week. The Thunder have been building towards this moment for years, acquiring numerous draft picks and boasting an MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. While the Pacers are expected to fight until the final buzzer and likely cover the spread several times during the series, the Thunder will be too strong for Indiana, ultimately winning in five games.
NBA Finals Prediction: Thunder in 5